Monday may as well have been a 3rd weekend day as far as the bond market is concerned. While equities are preoccupied with earnings, bonds were trading at about HALF their normal clip based on the past 2 weeks of average volume. There were no relevant economic releases and really not even any interesting market moving headlines. Buyers pushed back against modest overnight weakness in the AM hours and then drifted mostly sideways in the PM hours. Days like this only intensify the focus on next week's important slate of events which include a Treasury refunding announcement, Fed announcement (with likely QT tapering on the agenda) and the jobs report.
Modestly weaker overnight with 10yr yields up 3.3bps at 4.655 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).
10:53 AM
Back in positive territory, MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.618
02:52 PM
Best levels at noon, but dialing back a bit into the PM hours. Trading levels right in line with last update. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) from highs, but still up 3 ticks on the day.
03:52 PM
Back near best levels. No particular reason or significance. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.616
Lock / Float Considerations
Yields were higher at the start of the day, but remained under last week's highs, not to mention closing at slightly lower levels. These are the kinds of subtle context clues that make risk takers hopeful that we've seen a temporary ceiling until getting stronger cues from the early May data. The caution to those floaters is that it's hard to make a case for any significant improvement until and unless that data comes in friendly.