Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 5:25 PM
MBS Recap
Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:24 PM
Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
Bonds have been in correction mode for almost the entire week. Early trading on Monday morning was the only exception with the unwinding of the Yen carry trade dominating the action. But even then, bonds had given up all of the gains by the close of business on Monday and only continued losing ground through the end of the Treasury auction cycle yesterday. If there's one day this week that had the best chance of seeing an end to the correction, today would be it. And it was! Dare we say this has all been fairly logical, even if Monday's initial volatility presented a big curve ball? If things remain logical, the next big move, for better or worse, stands the best chance to find inspiration from Wednesday morning's CPI data.
Steady gains overnight and in early trading. 10yr down 5.6bps at 3.936 and MBS up an eighth.
12:48 PM
Mostly flat with MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 6bps at 3.934
04:19 PM
Gradual leakage in MBS with 5.5 coupons up only 2 ticks (.06). 10yr yields are still down 5.4bps at 3.939
Lock / Float Considerations
Friday's modest gains suggest this week's correction has run its course. Risk/reward is more subdued at this point until we get to next week's key econ data--most notably CPI on Wednesday.