Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 5:27 PM
MBS Recap
Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:27 PM
Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact
Bonds dealt with a trifecta of unfriendly economic data today with slightly stronger Retail Sales leading the charge. Jobless claims and Philly Fed certainly didn't help. In the desert of data that exists between each month's jobs reports, only a handful of days stand out as potential sources of course correction. Today was one of them and the 8bp sell-off in 10yr yields confirms it. Despite that reasonably big jump, yields are still under last week's highs. That's a decent consolation prize--one that suggests the market will remain willing to rally if it sees cracks in the next round of relevant data.
modestly weaker overnight with additional losses after data. MBS down 6 ticks (.19). 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.067
10:34 AM
Slowly and steadily weaker. MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 7.4bps at 4.088
02:55 PM
Treading water at weakest levels. MBS down just over 3/8ths and 10yr up 8.1bps at 4.095
Lock / Float Considerations
Thursday's data delivered on the high risk front with a big move in the bond market, but not as much on the reward front. Specifically, rate sheets didn't move nearly as much as the market suggested. That makes for a very compelling lock opportunity--especially for the risk averse crowd who didn't happen to lock yesterday. It continues to be the case that the biggest moves are a risk after the biggest econ data and that the first two weeks of November could be extraordinarily volatile.
