Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 4:03 PM
MBS Recap
Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:02 PM
Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday
Bonds were technically a hair weaker in the overnight session, but even if they never improved from those levels, yields still would have been inside the prevailing range (4.0 to 4.12 in terms of the 10yr). As it stands, they did improve a bit, ultimately hitting 4.063 at the lows and holding near there through the close. MBS picked up a microscopic gain as well. All of the above is perfectly reasonable considering the lack of motivation in economic data. Today's only report (residential construction) hasn't moved markets in over a decade. With that, we're back to waiting for relevant data with the next notable installment not arriving until Thursday.
Unchanged to slightly weaker overnight, but making early gains. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.068
01:20 PM
Stronger into mid-day, but leveling off now. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.07
03:28 PM
Sleepy day with low volatility. MBS up 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.074
Lock / Float Considerations
Thursday's data delivered on the high risk front with a big move in the bond market, but not as much on the reward front. Specifically, rate sheets didn't move nearly as much as the market suggested. That makes for a very compelling lock opportunity--especially for the risk averse crowd who didn't happen to lock yesterday. It continues to be the case that the biggest moves are a risk after the biggest econ data and that the first two weeks of November could be extraordinarily volatile.
