Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 4:10 PM
MBS Recap
Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:09 PM
Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a bit more selling after the Jobless Claims data, but the losses were erased by the early afternoon. Even then, they were never that big in the first place. The muted volatility fit nicely in a week where the tone has been decidedly calm and the range has been reliably narrow. It's also a perfect set up for the report that always reserves the right to rock the boat (Friday morning's jobs report). Expectations are for a fairly middle-of-the-road 200k print for nonfarm payrolls and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate.
Modestly weaker overnight and slight additional losses after solid jobless claims data. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.214.
02:13 PM
Bouncing back a bit into the PM hours. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.183
03:29 PM
Best levels of the day with MBS now unchanged and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.173
Lock / Float Considerations
Bonds made it through the Thanksgiving trading week in the best possible shape relative to the incoming data. The rising rate trend from October was defeated 2 weeks ago and the initial sideways trajectory gave way to a modest recovery. Nonetheless, it continues to be up to incoming economic data to determine the next "real" move in rates. So far this week, data has merely helped rates hold near their lowest recent levels. The only major report left is Friday's jobs report.
