Considering everything that transpired yesterday, today's follow-up was about as calm as we could have hoped for. Bonds lost ground, but the losses were focused on the long end of the curve. That limited the damage for MBS, which have been hanging out with the middle of the curve these days. AM econ data was a mixed bag despite appearing to be unfriendly at first glance. If it had any ill effect, it was minimal. In the bigger picture, Thursday simply represented a leveling-off after Wednesday's rout. Friday brings monthly PCE inflation, which is certainly capable of causing a big reaction, but it almost never lives up to that potential.
Sideways to slightly weaker overnight and little-changed after AM data. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.537
02:08 PM
Modest additional weakness into 1:30pm. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.552
Lock / Float Considerations
All bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. That said, it has been and continues to be the case that any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we're waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).
