On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going to happen ends up happening in the morning, thus leaving the rest of the day to drift almost perfectly sideways. Thursday was one of those days. Overseas markets dogpiled on Wednesday afternoon's tariff reaction, sending stocks ripping lower and bond yields following. By the time US markets began active trading, most of the gains were in for bonds. MBS, specifically, barely budged from 11:40am through the close.
Stronger overnight as tariff rally extends. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 8bps at 4.044
01:01 PM
Sideways near highs. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 01yr down 7.5bps at 4.048
04:17 PM
Still sideways! MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 8.3bps at 4.041
Lock / Float Considerations
Bonds have been benefiting in a major way from hefty stock selling. There's a shelf life on that motivation as well as a risk of a reversal that can happen in a much more volatile way. In other words, it's not as if the rally is being driven by a confirmed shift in economic data. Instead, it's driven by an expectation about the impact of an idea that hasn't even been truly implemented, and one that could change on a whim. Floaters should proceed with caution.
