Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
Fri, May 30 2025, 4:19 PM
MBS Recap
Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:19 PM
Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
There was always a reasonably high bar for today's econ data to have a big impact. When it came out right in line with expectations this morning, that ship sailed. That left the month-end trading environment as the most likely source of inspiration. While we can certainly see some evidence of month-end volatility, it played out in a narrow range. More importantly, it resolved with bonds at the strongest levels of the week, even if by only a small margin.
flat overnight and minimal reaction to data. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.435
11:31 AM
Steady near unchanged levels in MBS. 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.407
03:40 PM
Best levels of the day, but minimal movement overall. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.399
Lock / Float Considerations
Rates have managed to find support at recent high yields after spending most of May moving decisively higher. Prevailing momentum is sideways in a fairly narrow range in the bigger picture. It continues to be the case that a truly worthwhile rate rally will require sharply weaker economic data, a consistent failure of tariff-driven inflation to materialize, and/or a legitimate reason to expect lower Treasury issuance.
