Both the FHFA and Caseā€‘Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose.  If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March.

FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM)

  • April: āˆ’0.4%; March was revised from āˆ’0.1% to 0.0%

  • YoY: +3.0% from Aprilā€Æ2024 to Aprilā€Æ2025

Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (āˆ’1.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%).

The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentumā€”not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April's declines to some extent.

Caseā€‘Shiller National Index (unadjusted)

  • YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March

  • MoM (raw): +0.6%

  • MoM (seasonally adjusted): āˆ’0.4%

This marks the smallest annual national gain since midā€‘2023ā€”further evidence of continued deceleration.

Seasonally Adjusted Comparison Table: FHFA vs Caseā€‘Shiller (April 2025)

Index MoM (SA) YoY
FHFA HPI  āˆ’0.4% +3.0%
Caseā€‘Shiller  āˆ’0.4% +2.7%

Seasonal Adjustment Matters

Just like last month, raw Caseā€‘Shiller data (unadjusted) can mask underlying weakness evident once seasonal factors are stripped outā€”and weā€™re seeing that again this month.

Longerā€‘Term View: YoY Trends

Both indices indicate that home price growth is decelerating:

  • FHFA shows moderate upward movement but at a slowed pace.

  • Caseā€‘Shillerā€™s +2.7% YoY gain is the lowest since spring 2023.

Seasonally adjusted Caseā€‘Shiller is already in negative territory MoMā€”marking limited, but meaningful cooling across metro areas.

Bottom Line

Home prices continue to rise YoY, but growth has clearly slowed (and, in April, backtracked a bit). The first negative MoM for seasonally adjusted Caseā€‘Shiller since earlyā€‘2023 highlights early signals of market softening.

With mortgage rates holding steady in the upper 6% range and inventory slightly elevated, it would not be a surprise to see a similar trend continue in coming months.