Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session and this morning's economic data did little to change that. The initial reaction may have involved a modicum of selling, but it was fully erased by 11:15am. The PM hours saw both stocks and bonds paring long positions for July's final marks. The typical closing bells (3pm and 4pm) accounted for most of the losses. Bonds ultimately gave up all of the overnight gains, but remain close enough to 'unchanged' heading into Friday's big jobs report.
Little changed from stronger overnight levels after data. MBS are up just over an eighth and 10yr yields are down 3bps at 4.345
11:49 AM
resilience into late AM hours. 10yr down 4bps at 4.335 and MBS up an eighth
02:40 PM
10yr yields still down 1.6 bps at 4.359, but at highs of day. MBS are still up 2 ticks (.06), but at the lows of the day.
04:04 PM
weakest levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr down only half a bp at 4.369
Lock / Float Considerations
As always, all bets are off ahead of the month's most important economic report (jobs report/NFP). Late day weakness creates some asymmetric risk toward higher rates (for lenders who don't reprice for the worse). In other words, if NFP were to have zero impact on rates, the bias is slightly in favor of locking. That said, NFP can, of course, have a very large impact on rates for better or worse.
