Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overnight session. This is not the typical pattern seen these days, but it's not uncommon to see some positive spillover into bonds when stock losses are sharp enough. In any event, it's not something to count on when it comes to tomorrow's motivations. For that, we actually have economic data for a change. In the absence of government agency data, if we had to pick 2 reports to carry the torch, they would be ADP employment and ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow brings us both releases and, thus, a strong chance to see data-driven volatility.
modestly stronger overnight and holding gains so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.095
01:39 PM
Sideways near best levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.083
04:48 PM
Heading out at best levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.084
Lock / Float Considerations
Heading into Wednesday morning, volatility risks are higher than normal due to scheduled econ data. The combo of ADP and ISM Services is more than capable of creating momentum in either direction, depending on the results.
