Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend since Fed day. Viewed through another lens, Fed day caused an isolated lurch toward higher yields and then we were generally sideways until yesterday's econ data caused another lurch higher. The common thread in each scenario is that bonds had been unable to find a reason to rally in any meaningful way. Amid such scenarios, we wait for such rallies to restore balance to the near-term outlook. Via weak results in private label econ data, a sharp morning selling spree in stocks (and perhaps some technical support seen as early as yesterday when 10yr yields topped out at 4.16), today provided that rally.
Fairly sharp rally at 8:20am CME open with more buying as stocks sell off. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.097
01:56 PM
very flat near strongest levels. MBS still up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 7.6bps at 4.084
04:18 PM
Still flat into the after hours session. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 7.3bps at 4.088
Lock / Float Considerations
Thursday's data-driven rally is more than enough to reinforce the support seen at Wednesday's weaker boundary (4.16% in terms of 10yr yields). In other words, if you were waiting for evidence that the recent selling trend has met sufficient resistance to return to a neutral lock/float stance, this was it.
