Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 4:21 PM
MBS Recap
Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:20 PM
Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card
The rescheduled release of the September jobs report played out exactly as we expected in terms of bond market impact. Volumes surged to the highest levels since the late October Fed announcement and bonds managed a clear response in spite of arguably mixed results. That said, the response was still logical given the Fed's stated preference for the unemployment rate over the payroll count. One could imagine an even more decisive rally if NFP was low or negative (or if the unemployment rate was another 0.1% higher). The AM rally may have fizzled out by 10:30am if not for another sizeable sell-off in stocks. This is a bit of a wild card going forward (i.e. we have to worry that a big correction in stocks could push yields higher).
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.121
11:50 AM
Best levels of the day with MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.103
03:10 PM
MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.105
Lock / Float Considerations
The jobs report has come and gone with no fanfare and no attempt to challenge either boundary of the prevailing range. Risk/reward is lower heading into tomorrow, but it's always worth remembering that Thanksgiving weeks can be irrationally volatile due to varying levels of participation/liquidity. Rescheduled economic data can add to that phenomenon.
