On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on days with important economic reports, but not in response to those economic reports. Thursday was the latest example. The 8:30am jobless claims data was undoubtedly a tradeable event based on the big volume spike at the time, but the higher yields were already in place by the time the data came out. Moreover, there wasn't much of a response afterward. Bonds spent the rest of the day drifting sideways to slightly weaker, but still very much in the prevailing pre-Thanksgiving range (i.e. 10yr yields 4.05-4.17).
moderately weaker overnight with additional temporary selling after jobless claims data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3bps at 4.093
01:59 PM
10yr yields are up 4bps at 4.104. MBS down 5 ticks (.16).
03:02 PM
MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.11
Lock / Float Considerations
Bonds are trading well mid-week regardless of econ data (perhaps even showing some disinterest in the data). From a technical standpoint, rates are that much closer to long-term resistance levels. A big break lower would require a big development in data (specifically the data coming out in 2 weeks). Random, in-range volatility is the baseline between now and then, with a brief pause for heavier event risk surround next Wednesday's Fed announcement.
