Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
Wed, Dec 10 2025, 4:41 PM
MBS Recap
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:39 PM
Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved
Today's gains ended up being all about Powell's press conference. While there were a few potentially friendly comments (current rates in high end of neutral range, recent job gains overstated, no decision yet on January, inflation coming down), we can also consider that Powell simply avoided the same sort of hawkish reminders seen in the last press conference. On a day where bonds had already been selling fairly aggressively for 2 weeks, this could be all the market needed to breathe a sigh of relief and reinforce the ceiling of the prevailing trading range. All in all a fairly tame Fed day reaction, but one with a happy ending nonetheless.
Slightly weaker overnight and little-changed so far. 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.197. MBS up 2 ticks (.06).
11:29 AM
Best levels of the day. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.162
02:40 PM
No major volatility since Fed announcement. Slightly weaker as Powell begins speaking. MBS still up a quarter point. 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.176
03:09 PM
MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.145.
Lock / Float Considerations
The friendly reaction to the Fed announcement (and press conference) helps reinforce the prevailing range. Risk-tolerant clients will use the ceiling of the range as a lock trigger while risk-averse clients will capitalize on today's mid-day price improvements. Volatility risk decreases over the next few days, but will pick back up again leading up to the Dec 16th jobs report.
