Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 5:02 PM
MBS Recap
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:59 PM
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
There was certainly the potential for volatility today with the confluence of ADP, ISM, and Job Openings data. But the results ended up being close enough to consensus to obviate any massive reactions. Yields hit their lowest levels in a week after ADP came in slightly softer, but most of the rally was already in place from the overnight session. Stronger ISM and job openings pushed bonds back in the other direction, but not enough to result in bond market losses or negative reprices.
Steadily stronger overnight and slightly stronger after ADP. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.123
10:02 AM
Losing ground after 10am data. MBS back to unchanged and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.152
12:06 PM
Recovering a bit into mid-day. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.138
04:42 PM
Off the strongest levels, but still in stronger territory. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.149
Lock / Float Considerations
With Wednesday's data failing to inspire any significant volatility, attention turns to Friday's jobs report as this week's last big-ticket event. Thursday is a bit of a push, but with rates at 2-month lows, risk averse clients remain in lock mode.
