No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 4:16 PM
MBS Recap
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:15 PM
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The statement was moderately more hawkish in that it acknowledged progress on the labor market front and overall economy. To the very small extent that the statement was hawkish, Powell's press conference could be viewed as counterbalancing due to the non-threatening characterization of inflation and ongoing openness to additional easing if conditions justify it. Bonds are heading out the door almost exactly in line with opening levels and there wasn't much movement in between.
Just barely stronger overnight and sideways so far this morning. MBS unchanged and 10yr effectively unchanged at 4.248.
12:38 PM
MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.259
03:10 PM
Limited reaction to Fed. Gaining some ground as Powell presser continues. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr unchanged at 4.246
Lock / Float Considerations
Mortgage rates have some insulation against broader bond market sell-offs due to GSE MBS purchases, but barring a big Treasury rally, the lower limit of the mortgage rate range was established in early January. One of two things is required for a meaningful push back toward lower rates: more selling to set an entry point for bond buyers, or legitimate deterioration in big ticket data (and there's none on the horizon until the first week of February).
