Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was the biggest rally day since November, at least, and that's impressive given the motivations. Specifically, there was a trifecta of downbeat labor market reports (Challenger, Jobless Claims, and Job Openings). Individually, none of these are worth a third of the move we saw today, but the whole was greater than the sum of its parts. There's also a 4th report being traded today: next week's big jobs report. In other words, between yesterday's ISM employment numbers and today's reports, traders are taking a cautious lead-off ahead of the big jobs report. This raises the stakes for volatility next Wednesday morning.
Modestly stronger overnight with additional gains after AM data. MBS up almost an eighth and 10yr down 4bps at 4.24
10:06 AM
Additional gains after JOLTS data with 10yr down 5 bps at 4.228 and MBS up 5 ticks (.16).
01:09 PM
Best levels of the day. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 7.1bps at 4.207
Lock / Float Considerations
Thursday's labor market data got bonds moving in a more serious way. There is no remaining big ticket data this week, but the clear implication is for next Wednesday's jobs report to either endorse a move back into the previous range or reinforce the recent breakout. On a short-term, tactical note, if you're floating with a lender who didn't offer any noticeable improvement today, you're more insulated than normal going into tomorrow.
