Don't call it a correction. Yields may have rallied 30bps in just over a week and apparently bounced almost perfectly at 4% (10yr), but they haven't exactly done much over the past 2 days. It's just as fair to say things are "sideways and waiting for guidance," but the cautious approach is to respect the almost-too-obvious technical patterns in play since July. Specifically, bonds have rallied 25-30bps and then consolidated toward slightly higher levels on multiple occasions. This could be the beginning of another similar pattern, but anything is possible if data is gloomy over the next 2 days (especially Friday). Today's data was modestly unfriendly with core durable goods at 0.6 vs 0.4 and a lackluster 20yr bond auction (not typically a market mover, but added some pressure today).
Roughly unchanged overnight and no major reaction to 830am data. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.064
01:21 PM
Slightly weaker after 20yr auction. 10yr yields up 2.2bps at 4.082. MBS unchanged after being up 3 ticks (.09).
02:09 PM
zero reaction to Fed Minutes. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 2bps at 4.081
Lock / Float Considerations
With bonds failing to build on last week's gains, there's an increased sense of technical resistance at the 4% mark in 10yr yields. One could also consider that yields have been roughly limited to 25bp rallies and have tended to see some correction after every example going back to July 2025. This set-up is a bit more defensive than average, but anything is possible if econ data is gloomy over the next 2 days.
