Today's most notable development was a fairly large bond rally despite another uptick in oil prices. The leading explanation, by far, is the general notion that investors are increasingly worried about the economic impact of higher oil prices. There is no clean way to measure this in the short term, and even those espousing the notion are reluctant to conclude that it marks a turning point in the broader sell-off. For now, it was a nice way to start the week, even if it also drew strength from the positioning considerations discussed this morning.
Stronger overnight and flat so far. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 6.7bps at 4.367
11:42 AM
best levels of the day with MBS up 5/8ths and 10yr down 10.6bps at 4.327
01:52 PM
Down an eighth from intraday highs, but still up 14 ticks (.44) on the day. 10yr still down 9bps at 4.345
04:20 PM
MBS up only 11 ticks now (down a quarter from highs). 10yr down 8.4bps at 4.35
Lock / Float Considerations
3/30/26 - Fairly big rally in bonds, but we're only 1 day away from the weakest closing levels in months. It has been and continues to be the case that it will take more than a day or two of apparent recovery before we can conclude rising rate pressure has run its course.
