Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night's Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's speech and the Iran/Oman news may as well have been the only two things that happened today because those were the only moments with any serious market movement. The jobs report is on deck for tomorrow's holiday-shortened trading session.
Weaker overnight after Trump speech and flat-ish since then. 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.35 and MBS down 7 ticks (.22).
10:28 AM
Stronger after 9:30am NYSE open. MBS back to unchanged and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.302
10:41 AM
Additional gains after headline on Hormuz reopening headlines. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.295
02:40 PM
Super flat all afternoon. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.309
Lock / Float Considerations
4/2/26 - Bonds and even oil price futures for more distant delivery months may be expressing hope for de-escalation, and the biggest risk takers may be sensing an opportunity there, but the average client is still waiting for the bond market to show us more love before abandoning a defensive strategy by default. There is additional volatility heading into Friday due to the jobs report and the holiday-shortened trading session for Good Friday.
