Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility
Thu, Apr 9 2026, 3:55 PM
MBS Recap
Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:54 PM
Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility
As has been the recent custom, there were dueling headlines concerning the Iran war today with opposing claims regarding the status of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire. If that sounds like kind of a stretch when it comes to bond market significance, bond traders agreed. That said, it was still traded to some extent. This resulted in mid-day volatility that took bonds from slightly weaker to slightly stronger territory, and then back to being roughly unchanged. Econ data was a relative non-event in the morning, but Friday's data has a slightly better chance of garnering a response.
Very flat overnight. Slightly weaker after data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.30
10:31 AM
weakest levels. MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.311
11:38 AM
10s now down 1bp at 4.285. MBS are within 1 tick (.03) of unchanged.
01:39 PM
Best levels of the day for 10s, down 3.2bps at 4.264. MBS unchanged (also near opening highs).
03:37 PM
Off the best levels, but not with sustained selling. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.288
Lock / Float Considerations
4/9/26 - Bonds seem to be getting more and more desensitized to war-related headlines. They've also done a good job of avoiding any major selling except when that selling marks a rebound from even stronger buying (like Wednesday). In general, there's been more room for risk-tolerant views this week vs last, but risks increase a bit as we head into the weekend, and even as we wait for Friday AM's econ data.
