Although they still technically made positive progress versus the end of last week, bonds ended the day moderately weaker. Lower oil prices offered no support, but that's a tricky correlation these days. Longer-term oil contracts continue lining up with bond yield movement more reliably. To be sure, we can at least consider the impact of this morning's CPI data based on decent trading volume at the time and a reversal of the sideways to slightly stronger momentum in the preceding few hours, but it's impossible to say that it continued weighing on bonds for the rest of the session.
Slightly weaker this AM but leveling off with MBS unchanged and 10yr up 3bps at 4.306
12:46 PM
weakest levels. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.319
03:35 PM
flat for the past few hours with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.316
Lock / Float Considerations
4/10/26 - Friday's weakness COULD be nothing more than pre-weekend positioning in the bond market, but there's no denying the eerie message sent by this morning's inflation data, regardless of it being in-line with forecasts. Still, without any bigger selling sprees this week, risk takers can continue finding solace in this new, higher range as long as yields aren't surging above 4.40%. At the same time, the risk averse crowd doesn't have any reason to lower their defenses until yields are convincingly breaking below 4.30%.
