This morning, more than halfway through the international trading day, bonds were on track for the narrowest trading range since February 24th. The low volatility didn't last. Sellers surfaced in response to several war-related headlines. Bond yields followed oil prices higher from 9am through 1pm ET. That said, it was still a fairly light day of movement in bonds with MBS only losing about an eighth of a point depending on when you look and 10yr yields up 3bps at 4.31+ in the final hour of trading.
Giving up overnight gains before data and no change since. MBS unchanged and 10yr down half a bp at 4.279 (up from lows of 4.265).
10:04 AM
10yr yields moved up 1bp back to unchanged levels of 4.281 and MBS are now down 1 tick (.03)
01:16 PM
MBS down an eighth. Lows of the day. 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.315. Highs of the day.
03:43 PM
Flat afternoon. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.308
Lock / Float Considerations
4/16/26 - Volatility remains light this week since Tuesday. This increases optionality for lock/float considerations, but things should change at some point in the next few business days as the 2 week ceasefire deadline approaches. Unlike big-ticket economic reports, this potential volatility won't adhere to a set schedule.
