Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related headlines that prompted a sharp rally in bonds). The rest of the day was spent drifting mostly sideways. Stocks continued their surge to new all-time highs. Oil prices fell in concert with the bond rally, briefly dipping below $80/bbl.
Modest overnight gains and then more buying on war headlines. MBS up over a quarter point and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.262
01:03 PM
MBS up 13 ticks (.41) and 10yr down 8bps at 4.237
04:26 PM
little changed as the close approaches. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 7.2bps at 4.244
Lock / Float Considerations
4/17/26 - Bonds/rates continue riding the wave of de-escalation expectations. There's likely an additional boost available when the end of the war is confirmed, but corrective bounces are still possible if there are hiccups in the peace process. The lowest rates in over a month are always a compelling lock opportunity for risk averse clients. Risk tolerant clients are likely considering the relatively small improvement in rates compared to the suggestion of MBS (something that implies a cushion going into next week).
