Heading into last night's ceasefire expiration, there was a sense that the market would at least have something to provide a directional cue to break the recent range-bound monotony. Instead, not only was the ceasefire extended, but the new deadline is explicitly TBD. This makes the expiration of range-bound monotony similarly uncertain. Today's almost perfectly flat trading session submits itself as evidence. All this having been said, the absence of a deadline doesn't mean things can't change precipitously.
MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.9 bps at 4.276
12:23 PM
MBS now unchanged and 10yr also unchanged at 4.297
03:19 PM
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.292
Lock / Float Considerations
4/22/26 - The ceasefire extension and uncertain timeframe for a new deadline mean rates have little incentive to stray from a narrow, indecisive range in the short term. This can change abruptly in the event of major change in the status of the war.
