Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, bond yields and oil prices have been moving higher together. The early overnight trading hours may have witnessed a bit of a "blow-off top" (fancy words that basically mean markets reversed course simply because they'd gone too high, too fast). In other words, there wasn't an overt reason for the reversal in the news cycle. That said, there arguably wasn't sufficient justification for the last leg of the rate/oil spike seen yesterday. Econ data didn't necessarily drive any of the movement, but with PCE falling right in line with expectations, it didn't get in the way. Perhaps more impressive is that bonds didn't see any selling pressure from the lowest jobless claims reading in more than 3 years.
slightly stronger overnight and no immediate reaction to boatload of econ data. MBS up 7 ticks and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.402
12:05 PM
Fairly flat since the open. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4bps at 4.39
03:21 PM
Near best levels. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.383
Lock / Float Considerations
4/30/26 - Yesterday's high yields coincide almost perfectly with those seen on March 24th and 26th. From a purely technical perspective, this could be an early sign of a supportive bounce, but it would be more compelling if yields were moving/holding under 4.37%. From a non-technical perspective, volatility is more likely to stem from war-related headlines.
