Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 3:34 PM
MBS Recap
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:33 PM
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd expect a much bigger reaction to an official signing--something that could happen in a matter of days or continue to be punted indefinitely.
Just a hair weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.483
10:03 AM
Weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19). 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.495
10:48 AM
MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.503
01:00 PM
MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.482
Lock / Float Considerations
6/12/26 - Plenty of event risk over the weekend as there's allegedly at least some potential of material progress on signing a preliminary peace deal. Were that to happen, rates would almost certainly fall--potentially somewhat sharply. Conversely, any major speedbumps would likely put upward pressure on rates. Fortunately, the market is familiar with those speedbumps and unlikely to read too much into them.
