Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
1 Hour, 1 Min ago
MBS Recap
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:46 PM
Bonds Find Some Solace in Warsh Despite a Bit More Selling
The past 2 days have been rough for the bond market--nothing catastrophic, but "brisk" in terms of unexpected selling pressure. To be fair, buying/selling pressure is never truly expected (otherwise, why wait to trade it?), and higher volatility was definitely a risk surrounding quarter-end and the data calendar. Today could have been worse, but the market found some solace in this morning's Warsh comments the ECB SINTRA conference. Warsh stuck to the "no forward guidance" script but managed to offer some in a roundabout way by saying inflation risks have come down and that he was open to different views on the Fed's balance sheet size. While not true forward guidance, it was a net-dovish message that the market reacted to. Shorter-term debt did best, but 10yr yields are ending up about 2bps lower than they were before Warsh.
Selling continues this morning. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.49.
09:51 AM
Off the weakest levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr nearly unchanged at 4.467
01:53 PM
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.2bps at 4.463
03:23 PM
MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.479
Lock / Float Considerations
7/1/26 - The technical bounce at 4.36% (10yr yield) combined with higher risk calendar and lower holiday-week participation argue in favor of a more defensive stance until further notice.