Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the summertime months as fewer traders are consistently at bond desks--especially on days adjacent to 3-day holiday weekends. Today was a classic example. Bonds barely budged and volume is on track for one of the lightest full trading days of the year. In many ways, today was simply a 4th weekend day and we'll know more about how bonds are feeling on Tuesday. But at the very least, it's somewhat constructive to be starting the week without any extension of last week's selling pressure.
Modestly stronger over the weekend. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.465
12:54 PM
MBS up 4 ticks (.125) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.482
03:21 PM
MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.478
Lock / Float Considerations
7/6/26 - Caution remains warranted due to the lack of follow-through after the recent attempt to hold below 4.42% (10yr yield). That said, risk-tolerant clients are happy to see bonds hold ground under the 4.51% ceiling over the weekend. That ceiling could be used as a conservative lock trigger with 4.57 being the more aggressive option.
