It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing out. The U.S./Iran peace deal is on increasingly shaky ground and the ability for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly compromised over the past 24 hours. Most recently, headlines suggest the U.S. is withdrawing authorization for Iran to export oil after Iran's recent attacks on cargo vessels.

Rising oil prices imply higher inflation. Higher inflation leads to higher rates, all else equal. At the time of this article, the net effect on mortgage rates is modest with the top tier 30yr fixed rate only up 0.04% for the average lender. That said, many lenders may issue late day changes that push rate even higher.