There are always multiple technical lenses through which to view market movement, but the simplest involve trendlines and level lines. Yield movement has largely held inside the same high/low trendlines since October 2025, so that's a useful trend to keep tabs on the big picture. On a separate note, it's almost always worthwhile to keep tabs on the most recent long-term highs/lows. The past 2 days have seen yields flirt with both of these technical frameworks. Yesterday, we broke above the upper trendline and the long-term high. Today, we recovered under the long-term high but bounced precisely on that long-term trendline. Is the latter a cause for concern? Not technically. In fact, the last time it happened, was May 22nd, and rates generally moved lower in the following month. When we ask ourselves WHY they moved lower, the answer has nothing to do with technicals and everything to do with oil prices.
MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.684
01:00 PM
MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 3bps at 4.666
03:13 PM
Well off the best levels. MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) but down an eighth from the highs. 10yr still down 2bps at 4.676 but up almost 3bps from the lows.
Lock / Float Considerations
7/24/26 - Important day in the sense that bonds were willing to respond to a drop in oil prices. That's good proof of concept. Interesting day in that it could be a lock cue for clients who were simply looking for any relief. The most risk-tolerant thrill seekers may view it as a supportive ceiling, but if you choose that path, just be aware you are also claiming expertise on oil price analysis and assuming that oil prices have also topped. We almost certainly can't be sure of such a thing yet, even though every new high is a possible top/turning point.
