Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overnight in response to slightly lower oil prices and then more forcefully after the cooler-than-expected PPI data. Mid-day fuel price volatility caused a slight pull-back, but not enough to undo a reasonably robust rally by the close. If there's a "yeah but," it's that yields remain broadly sideways near long-term highs and were unable to challenge last week's lows.
Moderately stronger overnight and no whammies after PPI. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3bps at 4.666
12:55 PM
Off best levels, but still up 10 ticks (.31) in MBS, and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.644
03:55 PM
flat this afternoon. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.643
Lock / Float Considerations
8/13/26 - Lowest rates in nearly 4 weeks = always a compelling lock opportunity for risk-averse clients. That said, decent inflation data, the passing of the Treasury auction cycle, and overhead technical support for Treasury yields presents a similarly compelling opportunity for the risk-tolerant crowd. From technical standpoint, the risk is the trend of higher lows since July 29th with today representing another bounce.
