Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bond market. The most notable development was the brief visit to 4.75% in 10yr yields followed by the emergence of the quintessential "dip buyer" (i.e. "hey look... yields are high enough again that I think I'm going to buy some Treasuries"). The post-9:30am timing adds emphasis to that mentality among the retail investor community. Apart from that, there were no obvious motivations or relevant data points. Wednesday suffers a similar absence of scheduled events with the only exception being the Fed Minutes release at 2pm ET.
Slightly weaker overnight and sideways since then. 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.74 and MBS down an eighth of a point.
12:51 PM
MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.71
02:37 PM
MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.706
Lock / Float Considerations
8/18/26 - (unchanged from yesterday): Meaningful progress for the bond market remains elusive--a fact that's doubly true on any day with higher fuel prices in play. This dynamic will continue as long as the Iran war continues, thus making overnight floating a perpetually risky strategy.
