Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
Thu, Aug 27 2026, 4:25 PM
MBS Recap
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:24 PM
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, there's a decent amount of focus on Friday's Warsh speech at Jackson Hole simply because it's customary to focus on Fed Chair speeches at Jackson Hole. They're hit and miss in terms of delivering on volatility potential. There's nothing else of note on the econ calendar. With Monday being the last day of the month, we could also see momentum from early month-end trading. Other than that, fuel prices continue to set the tone more often than not. Today was no exception as an early afternoon surge in oil pushed yields to the highs of the day after reports that the White House rejected the idea of rekindling the June MOU/ceasefire.
Modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.661
02:06 PM
MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3bps at 4.679
04:07 PM
MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.67
Lock / Float Considerations
8/27/26 - Yields remain range-bound in a technical sense but broke above the 4.67% highs seen over the past 2 domestic sessions. This introduces a slightly negative bias heading into Friday (but again, only in a technical sense). Final directionality is more likely to be decided by any reaction to Warsh or any meaningful movement in fuel prices.
