Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
Mon, Aug 31 2026, 5:00 PM
MBS Recap
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:59 PM
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That's the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it's worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today's levels. In other words, it was ultimately a small, incremental bump. Perhaps more importantly, it was not-at-all out of character with respect to the prevailing trend.
MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.9 bps at 4.761
04:01 PM
MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.744
Lock / Float Considerations
8/31/26 - AM weakness may have been driven by temporary factors, but bonds nonetheless broke to the weak side of technical support levels. Moreover, the negative trend easily remained intact. There will always be pockets of correction amid broadly negative momentum, but trying to time those accurately is impossible. It makes sense to remain defensive until there's a clear reversal in the bigger-picture trend.
