Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news regarding new air strikes in Iran caused an immediate reaction in oil prices. This was more than enough to reverse the rally that followed this morning's 10am ET economic data. Oil prices hit the highest level since late July and bond yields matched the highest closing levels since January 2025.
MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3bps at 4.784
10:17 AM
Stronger after 10am data, but still weaker on the day. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1bp at 4.761
12:32 PM
MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.786
02:11 PM
MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.791
Lock / Float Considerations
9/1/26 - War headlines and oil price volatility present persistent risks for volatility. It makes sense to remain defensive until there's a clear reversal in the bigger-picture trend.
