Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game
Tue, Sep 15 2026, 4:32 PM
MBS Recap
Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:31 PM
Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game
After several consecutive business days of abject unpleasantness in the bond/mortgage market, Tuesday finally offered a modest consolation. During domestic trading hours, every attempt to push 10yr yields over 5% was met with a supportive bounce--presumably from value buyers targeting 5% as a good entry point to own 10yr notes for investment purposes. We wouldn't read too much into this just yet. It is a defensible conclusion today (especially in light of oil prices surging over to over $106), but Wednesday's Fed reaction could completely change the landscape. We'll discuss "what if" scenarios in today's recap video.
9/15/26 - High risk / high reward ahead of Fed day. There were certainly some signs of technical support in the bond market today, but things can go either way in a big way tomorrow afternoon. We would still prefer to see a clearly-defined reversal and momentum toward lower rates before reconsidering a defensive stance by default.
