Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification
2 Hours, 34 Min ago
MBS Recap
Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:59 PM
Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification
10yr yields hit another long-term high today, breaking above 5.30% briefly before settling just under 5.29%. There was a flash of hope after the 8:30am econ data, but that reversed fairly quickly. Reasons can be debated. Some would say today's broadly stronger econ data supported it while pointing out that the "beat" in PCE wasn't really news in light of the methodology changes. On that note, some might say methodology that drops core PCE by 0.361 (July vs July unrounded) means that Fed policy will be less aggressive in fighting inflation than it otherwise would have been. In that context, today's heavy underperformance in the long end of the curve actually makes good sense, but it's just an interesting theory to entertain. Month/Quarter-end compulsory trading could certainly be an ingredient, but there's no great way to confirm that until several days in the future. Either way, inbound econ data certainly matters on Thu/Fri and the radar perpetually awaits any big blips shaped like Iran war truces (or escalations).
MBS down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and a quarter point from highs. 10yr up 2.4bps at 5.269
02:19 PM
MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5.4bps at 5.299
Lock / Float Considerations
9/30/26 - (unchanged from Monday) We continue to recommend waiting until the market shows a stronger desire to rally (without said rally being a response to heavy selling) before adjusting your lock/float game plan. That said, if econ data comes in weak, and bonds recover, there could be a fairly substantial reaction in mortgage rates. As always, the issue is that the data could also come in stronger and only add to the recent upward momentum.