Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Resilience in Equities
Tue, Nov 3 2026, 4:16 PM
MBS Recap
Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Resilience in Equities
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:15 PM
Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Resilience in Equities
There are several ways to view today's bond market movement and none of them are terribly important. Sharply lower oil prices had a small, friendly impact on bonds early in the day following more hopeful war-related headlines, but context is important. A 3-4 dollar drop in oil merely got 10yr yields back in line with overnight lows. In other words, there's still precious little correlation here. Oil reversed course fairly quickly and bonds got hit harder by strong JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). Correlation with tech stocks was minimal, but it didn't help that the NASDAQ inched higher from overnight lows throughout the session.
11/3/26 - Ever since rates bottomed out in the 2nd half of last week, we've noted increased headwinds to further improvement. We'd stay defensive until/unless the bond market can find a new reason to challenge last week's floors.
