MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

No Help From Econ Data as Bonds Prepare For Supply - Today, 3:31 PM

Treasuries made modest gains in overseas trading, but yields are heading higher during domestic hours. There are two things working against us this morning. The first is more of a gen...

Fri, January 3, 10:29 PM

Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare - Fri, January 3, 10:29 PM

MBS Recap Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare MBS Recap Matthew...

Fri, January 3, 7:28 PM

Treading Water at Weakest Levels - Fri, January 3, 7:28 PM

This is more of a "heads-up" alert as there haven't been any major changes in prices in the past few hours. Instead, Treasury yields have trickled gently to the highest levels of the day wi...

Fri, January 3, 5:23 PM

Decent Data Keeping Bonds in Check - Fri, January 3, 5:23 PM

Today's ISM Manufacturing report was the only top tier economic data this week. While we wouldn't say it was "strong" by any means, it wasn't weak either. More importantly, it was hig...

Fri, January 3, 3:07 PM

Losing Some Ground After ISM Data - Fri, January 3, 3:07 PM

ISM Manufacturing 49.3 vs 48.4 f'cast, 48.4 prev ISM Prices 52.5 vs 51.7 f'cast, 48.4 prev The ISM Manufacturing data wasn't too far from forecasts, but this week's...

Thu, January 2, 9:38 PM

Uneventful Start to 2025 - Thu, January 2, 9:38 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Start to 2025 MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:37 PM ...

Thu, January 2, 4:21 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Most Recent High - Thu, January 2, 4:21 PM

Bonds have steadily been giving up the overnight gains despite remaining in positive territory on the day. 10yr yields are still down about half a bp at 4.565, but that's up from lows of 4....

Thu, January 2, 3:11 PM

Stronger Start Despite Some Selling After Data - Thu, January 2, 3:11 PM

Bonds were steadily stronger overnight, both in Asia and Europe. 10yr yields and MBS had both fully erased Tuesday's losses within the first 30 minutes of domestic trading. That's whe...

Tue, December 31, 7:20 PM

Year-End Trading. No Big Deal - Tue, December 31, 7:20 PM

MBS Recap Year-End Trading. No Big Deal MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2:19 PM ...

Tue, December 31, 5:24 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Tue, December 31, 5:24 PM

While some lenders just set a conservative rate sheet and clock out on New Year's Eve, any lender that's paying attention is increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices. Month end ...

Tue, December 31, 4:08 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Tue, December 31, 4:08 PM

Things look a bit worse than they actually are on the charts due to a narrow overall range, but bonds have definitely shifted into weaker territory starting after 10:30am. MBS are now down ...

Tue, December 31, 3:00 PM

A Very Easy Explanation For MBS Underperformance - Tue, December 31, 3:00 PM

The day begins with MBS in slightly weaker territory while Treasuries are slightly stronger. The discrepancy isn't really big enough to merit any urgent explanation, but either way, there a...

Mon, December 30, 8:56 PM

Feel Free to Enjoy The Rally, But Don't Read Too Much Into It - Mon, December 30, 8:56 PM

MBS Recap Feel Free to Enjoy The Rally, But Don't Read Too Much Into It MBS Recap ...

Mon, December 30, 3:49 PM

What's Up With These Crazy Gains on Monday Morning?! - Mon, December 30, 3:49 PM

Stop the presses! MBS are up almost 3/8ths of a point in early trading and 10yr yields have surged lower by 8bps. This is a massive and miraculous rally that surely must have some com...

Fri, December 27, 9:57 PM

Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful - Fri, December 27, 9:57 PM

MBS Recap Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:56 P...

Fri, December 27, 7:48 PM

New Lows and Modest Reprice Risk - Fri, December 27, 7:48 PM

MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and just barely an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Some later-pricing lenders released rates during those highs, so if they're feeling jumpy, ...

Fri, December 27, 2:31 PM

Weaker in Europe, But Reasonably Resilient in Early US Trading - Fri, December 27, 2:31 PM

Not that any of this week's trading activity matters in the bigger picture, but things have been reasonably resilient after Monday's selling. Tuesday and Thursday saw more selling, but each...

Thu, December 26, 9:32 PM

Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction - Thu, December 26, 9:32 PM

MBS Recap Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Thu, December 26, 2:15 PM

Have You Heard The One About "Path of Least Resistance?" - Thu, December 26, 2:15 PM

Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting right back to the messaging that's been in force...

Tue, December 24, 3:11 PM

Time For One of Those "Path of Least Resistance" Headlines - Tue, December 24, 3:11 PM

Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this result in bond analysts dusting off phrases l...

Mon, December 23, 9:00 PM

Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season? - Mon, December 23, 9:00 PM

MBS Recap Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:0...

Mon, December 23, 7:15 PM

Down More Than a Quarter Point - Mon, December 23, 7:15 PM

MBS are now down 9 ticks on the day (.28) and nearly a quarter point from the AM highs. Lenders who priced at or before 9:30am ET are slightly more likely to be considering negative reprice...

Mon, December 23, 5:30 PM

No Help From Weaker Econ Data. Holiday Week Idiosyncrasies - Mon, December 23, 5:30 PM

The most interesting analysis we can offer today is a simple reminder that the word "idiosyncrasy" has an "S" at the end instead of the "C" that we're all thinking it should have. Speaking ...

Mon, December 23, 3:07 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs, But Weaker Data Could Help - Mon, December 23, 3:07 PM

Consumer Confidence 104.7 vs 113.0 f'cast, 111.7 prev MBS began the day about 2 ticks (.06) weaker but lost ground at a slightly faster pace between 9:30am and 10am ET.&nbs...

Fri, December 20, 9:44 PM

Not as Bad as it Could Have Been - Fri, December 20, 9:44 PM

MBS Recap Not as Bad as it Could Have Been MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:43 PM ...

Fri, December 20, 6:52 PM

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Fri, December 20, 6:52 PM

MBS hit their highs of the day just after noon ET and have corrected a bit since then. While 5.5 coupons are still up a quarter point, they're down just over an eighth of a point from the h...

Fri, December 20, 2:54 PM

Stronger Start After Cooler PCE, But Don't Expect Miracles - Fri, December 20, 2:54 PM

This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its primary focus away from the labor mark...

Fri, December 20, 1:34 PM

PCE Cooler Than Expected. Bonds Rallying Modestly - Fri, December 20, 1:34 PM

M/M Core PCE 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev Y/Y Core PCE 2.8 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.8 prev Bonds were already slightly stronger overnight and are adding to gains following t...

Thu, December 19, 9:30 PM

Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day - Thu, December 19, 9:30 PM

MBS Recap Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:29 P...

Thu, December 19, 3:29 PM

Weaker Momentum Continues, Regardless of Data - Thu, December 19, 3:29 PM

The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold. First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in September. This accounts for the sharp sell-off ...

Thu, December 19, 3:05 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth - Thu, December 19, 3:05 PM

Bonds have been selling off steadily in the long end of the yield curve all morning. There had been limited spillover to MBS until just recently, but volatility began picking up over the pa...

Thu, December 19, 1:37 PM

Mixed Bag of Data But No Major Reaction So Far - Thu, December 19, 1:37 PM

GDP 3.1 vs 2.8 f'cast, 3.0 prev Philly Fed Index -16.4 vs 3.0 f'cast, -5.5 prev Philly Fed Prices 31.2 vs 26.6 prev Jobless Claims 220k vs 230...

Wed, December 18, 10:07 PM

Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected - Wed, December 18, 10:07 PM

MBS Recap Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected MBS Recap ...

Wed, December 18, 7:56 PM

Negative Reprices Are Highly Likely - Wed, December 18, 7:56 PM

This is just an amplification of the previous alert just after 2pm. Bonds have continued to sell off. At first, it was based on the dot plot and the small verbiage change in the annou...

Wed, December 18, 7:02 PM

First Move Following Fed is Weaker - Wed, December 18, 7:02 PM

MBS are down a quick eighth of a point and 10yr yields are up 2.4bps at 4.425. The reaction so far is predicated on the dot plot moving up more than market expectations. More to follo...

Wed, December 18, 7:01 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, December 18, 7:01 PM

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has mo...

Wed, December 18, 4:31 PM

Stronger Start After Initial Weakness - Wed, December 18, 4:31 PM

Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as 5.5 coupons lost a majority of their ea...

Wed, December 18, 3:46 PM

Down an Eighth From AM Highs - Wed, December 18, 3:46 PM

MBS are underperforming Treasuries at the moment, even if we use 5yr yields as a benchmark. 10yr yields are down 0.2bps at 4.399 (i.e. slightly stronger). MBS are now back in weaker terr...

Tue, December 17, 8:58 PM

Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot - Tue, December 17, 8:58 PM

MBS Recap Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot MBS Recap M...

Tue, December 17, 4:05 PM

Once Again, Bonds Fight Back Against Stronger Data - Tue, December 17, 4:05 PM

Yesterday, it was S&P Global PMI data. Today it's Retail Sales. Both were stronger than expected. Both failed to cause any lasting weakness in bonds. Today's reaction ...

Tue, December 17, 1:40 PM

Hotter Retail Sales, But Internals Are Softer. Bonds Not Mad - Tue, December 17, 1:40 PM

Retail Sales 0.7 vs 0.5 f'cast, 0.4 prev Retail Sales excluding autos 0.2 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.2 prev There are several popular "internals" to examine when it comes to ...

Mon, December 16, 9:22 PM

Bonds Hold Ground Despite Unfriendly Econ Data - Mon, December 16, 9:22 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Hold Ground Despite Unfriendly Econ Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Mon, December 16, 5:26 PM

More Stable Start, For Now - Mon, December 16, 5:26 PM

Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session, and although domestic traders quickly erased the gains in the AM hours, the selling is currently stalling out near unchanged levels. I...

Mon, December 16, 2:52 PM

Losing Ground After S&P PMI - Mon, December 16, 2:52 PM

NY Fed Manufacturing .20 vs 12 f'cast, 31.2 prev S&P Services PMI 58.5 vs 55.7 f'cast, 56.1 prev Bonds drifted to slightly stronger levels in the overnight sess...

Fri, December 13, 9:55 PM

Why So Much Selling in Bonds? - Fri, December 13, 9:55 PM

MBS Recap Why So Much Selling in Bonds? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:55 PM ...

Fri, December 13, 5:18 PM

MBS Down Another Eighth From Previous Alert - Fri, December 13, 5:18 PM

Just a heads up that the bad times continue to roll. MBS are now down 10 ticks (.31) on the day and another eighth of a point from 10am (the time of the last alert). Lenders are in...

Fri, December 13, 4:42 PM

Another Red Day. Is There Any Reason For Hope? - Fri, December 13, 4:42 PM

Bonds can't seem to catch a break this week. Data hasn't necessarily been unfriendly either with both CPI and PPI hitting forecasts at the core monthly level (not to mention higher-than-exp...

Fri, December 13, 3:01 PM