MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Oliver Orlicki

Founder

The Orlicki Group

P: (813) 302-1616

www.orlickigroup.com

401 E Jackson Street Suite 2340
Tampa FL 33602

License:

205123

2127427

Ask Me a Question

Wed, 8:35 PM

Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data - Wed, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:35...

Wed, 7:18 PM

New Lows For MBS - Wed, 7:18 PM

MBS prices lost ground fairly quickly after the 3pm CME close and 5.5 coupons are now down a quarter point on the day and just over 3/8ths from the AM highs. Negative reprices remain possib...

Wed, 3:26 PM

Deceptively Resilient After Stronger Data - Wed, 3:26 PM

It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slightly weaker (2.8 vs 3.0) but with hig...

Wed, 3:11 PM

MBS Down Over a Quarter Point From Highs - Wed, 3:11 PM

It's easy to lose sight of the current sell-off in this morning's shuffle. There's been a lot of back and forth. Unfortunately, the highs of the day coincide with lender rate sheet pr...

Wed, 12:40 PM

Some Additional Weakness After GDP Data - Wed, 12:40 PM

GDP Q3 2.8 vs 3.0 f'cast, 3.0 prev Core Q3 PCE price index 2.2 vs 2.1 f'cast, 2.8 prev All things considered, bonds are holding up fairly well. The 2.2 vs 2.1...

Wed, 12:20 PM

ADP Jobs Much Higher Than Expected. Bonds Selling, But Gently So Far - Wed, 12:20 PM

ADP Employment 233k vs 115k f'cast, 143k prev The prevailing sentiment heading into this week's payroll counts (ADP and NFP) was that the hurricane would make for artificially lo...

Tue, 8:40 PM

Nice Recovery After JOLTS Data and Treasury Auction - Tue, 8:40 PM

MBS Recap Nice Recovery After JOLTS Data and Treasury Auction MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Tue, 5:48 PM

MBS Move Into Positive Territory After 7yr Auction - Tue, 5:48 PM

7yr Treasury Auction 4.215 vs 4.235 f'cast bid to cover 2.74x vs 2.54x avg primer on auction jargon Bonds were near their weakest levels of the day with 10yr yields pushi...

Tue, 2:18 PM

Pushing Back Against Early Weakness After JOLTS Data - Tue, 2:18 PM

As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic data moving markets. That changed in a...

Mon, 9:16 PM

Bonds Doing What Bonds Do - Mon, 9:16 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Doing What Bonds Do MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:13 PM ...

Mon, 4:03 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More LIkely - Mon, 4:03 PM

MBS have lost more than an eighth of a point since the last alert. They're now down a quarter point on the day and almost 3/8ths from the AM highs. This makes negative reprices increas...

Mon, 3:04 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, 3:04 PM

Bonds pushed into modestly positive territory to start the day, but have been giving up gains in the 10am hour. 5.5 UMBS are only down 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but that's 5 ticks (.16) bel...

Mon, 2:40 PM

Here Comes The Data (Starting Tomorrow) - Mon, 2:40 PM

After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From here on out, the move toward higher yiel...

Fri, October 25, 7:40 PM

Stronger Start, Weaker Finish - Fri, October 25, 7:40 PM

MBS Recap Stronger Start, Weaker Finish MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:40 PM ...

Fri, October 25, 7:20 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Increasingly Likely - Fri, October 25, 7:20 PM

MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10 ticks (.31) from AM highs. Lenders who have not yet repriced for the worse are increasingly likely to be considering it. 10yr yields are ...

Fri, October 25, 6:30 PM

Additional Negative Reprice Risk - Fri, October 25, 6:30 PM

Still no drama, just slow losses throughout the day. MBS are now down 3 ticks (0.09) in total and a quarter point from AM highs. Most lenders could justify a negative reprice if you h...

Fri, October 25, 4:33 PM

MBS At Lows - Fri, October 25, 4:33 PM

Nothing dramatic is happening by any means, but MBS have trickled down to new lows for the day. 5.5 coupons are still up 1 tick (.03) but down 5 ticks (.16) from the highs. Lenders wh...

Fri, October 25, 3:16 PM

Another Flat Start After Uninspiring Data - Fri, October 25, 3:16 PM

Granted, we were by no means looking for big things from this morning's Durable Goods data, but somehow it still managed to underwhelm. That's not saying much for Durable Goods considering ...

Fri, October 25, 12:36 PM

No Reaction to Durable Goods Data - Fri, October 25, 12:36 PM

Durable Goods -0.8 vs -1.0 f'cast, 0.0 prev Nondefense, excluding aircraft 0.5 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.2 prev Despite the stronger headline and even stronger "nondefense, ...

Thu, October 24, 8:56 PM

Better Balance, Finally - Thu, October 24, 8:56 PM

MBS Recap Better Balance, Finally MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:55 PM B...

Thu, October 24, 8:49 PM

Gains Mostly Evaporated - Thu, October 24, 8:49 PM

After being up just over a quarter point at times, MBS are now up only 2 ticks (.06). That shift played out after 2pm today with bonds currently at their lowest prices since this morning. ...

Thu, October 24, 2:31 PM

Bonds Doing Reasonably Well Considering Stronger Data - Thu, October 24, 2:31 PM

Thursday morning brought the week's only arguably important economic data in the form of Jobless Claims and S&P's PMIs. Both have a decent track record of inspiring small but noticeable...

Thu, October 24, 12:35 PM

Giving Up Overnight Gains After Stronger Jobless Claims - Thu, October 24, 12:35 PM

Jobless Claims 227k vs 242k f'cast, 242k prev Continued Claims 1897k vs 1880k f'cast, 1869k prev Bonds were moderately stronger overnight but are dialing back the g...

Wed, October 23, 8:35 PM

Why Would Rates Care About a One-Party Sweep? - Wed, October 23, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Why Would Rates Care About a One-Party Sweep? MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Wed, October 23, 5:56 PM

Heads Up: Losing Ground Again After Decent Recovery - Wed, October 23, 5:56 PM

This is more of a heads-up than a true "alert." The morning's initial alert covered a sell-off that resulted in prices being even lower than they are right now. The only reason for a ...

Wed, October 23, 2:13 PM

Important Reminder About How Bad Things Could Get - Wed, October 23, 2:13 PM

For those of you who already feel like you fully understand the message in Tuesday's recap, the next few days and weeks might get a little repetitive, but the gravity of the message bears repeati...

Wed, October 23, 1:59 PM

Early Weakness - Wed, October 23, 1:59 PM

Bonds began the day in weaker territory and have been losing ground gradually since the open. MBS are now down almost a quarter point on the day with almost an eighth of a point of losses i...

Tue, October 22, 8:35 PM

Much Calmer, But Risks Remain - Tue, October 22, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Much Calmer, But Risks Remain MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:34 PM ...

Tue, October 22, 3:21 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Creeping In - Tue, October 22, 3:21 PM

Bonds are still unchanged to slightly stronger on the day, but prices have been leaking to the lowest levels. MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those highs occurre...

Tue, October 22, 2:30 PM

Off to a Better Start vs Monday (Not That The Bar Was High...) - Tue, October 22, 2:30 PM

Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only thing remotely resembling a consensus on t...

Mon, October 21, 8:48 PM

Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts - Mon, October 21, 8:48 PM

MBS Recap Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts MBS Recap ...

Mon, October 21, 4:16 PM

Bonds Have a (Bad) Case of The Mondays - Mon, October 21, 4:16 PM

First off, there's no great explanation for the extent to which bonds are losing ground this morning. These days happen occasionally. Sometimes an elusive market mover becomes clearer...

Mon, October 21, 3:13 PM

Snowball Selling; Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, October 21, 3:13 PM

MBS are now down 3/8ths in 5.5 coupons and more than half a point in 5.0 coupons. 10yr yields are up 9bps to new highs of 4.168. There are no overt market movers in play this morning, wh...

Mon, October 21, 2:07 PM

MBS at new lows - Mon, October 21, 2:07 PM

MBS just lost another 2 ticks (.06) on top of an already weak start, bringing the total loss to more than a quarter point on the day for 5.5 coupons and 3/8ths of a point for 5.0 coupons. ...

Fri, October 18, 8:03 PM

Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday - Fri, October 18, 8:03 PM

MBS Recap Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday MBS Recap Matth...

Fri, October 18, 3:02 PM

In The Absence of Data, No Need For More Selling - Fri, October 18, 3:02 PM

While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical. Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthcoming Fed meeting, data drives all (to b...

Thu, October 17, 9:27 PM

Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact - Thu, October 17, 9:27 PM

MBS Recap Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact MBS Recap Matthew G...

Thu, October 17, 5:53 PM

MBS Now Down More Than 3/8ths of a Point - Thu, October 17, 5:53 PM

It's been a slow burn for bonds after this morning's stronger econ data, so this is more of a periodic update on the proliferation of damage than an "alert" in response to some new development.&n...

Thu, October 17, 3:53 PM

Trifecta of Unfriendly Economic Reports For Bonds - Thu, October 17, 3:53 PM

Ever since last Thursday's econ data failed to cause a stir in financial markets, we knew we'd be waiting until today for big, data-driven volatility potential. Volatility goes both ways de...

Thu, October 17, 12:32 PM

Stronger Data Across The Board. Bonds Losing Ground - Thu, October 17, 12:32 PM

Philly Fed 10.3 vs 3.0 f'cast Retail Sales 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast Jobless Claims 241k vs 260k f'cast Bonds were already modestly weaker in the overnight se...

Wed, October 16, 8:24 PM

Thursday Morning is This Week's Biggest Volatility Risk - Wed, October 16, 8:24 PM

MBS Recap Thursday Morning is This Week's Biggest Volatility Risk MBS Recap Matthe...

Wed, October 16, 2:48 PM

Mixed, Slightly Stronger Start, But Still Waiting For Thursday's Data - Wed, October 16, 2:48 PM

The market was hungry for data before the jobs report week and has been even hungrier since then. Unfortunately, there haven't been many compelling reports and, more importantly, no results...

Tue, October 15, 8:34 PM

Uneventful Day, But That's a Victory These Days - Tue, October 15, 8:34 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Day, But That's a Victory These Days MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Tue, October 15, 1:36 PM

Stronger Start to Holiday-Shortened Week - Tue, October 15, 1:36 PM

Bonds moved into stronger territory over the 3 day weekend in a move largely attributed to de-escalation in the Middle East and the sharp drop in oil prices that followed. Oil and bonds are far f...

Fri, October 11, 8:14 PM

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth From Highs - Fri, October 11, 8:14 PM

This is more of a heads up for those of you floating with lenders who'd previously repriced for the better when MBS hit highs earlier this afternoon. Those lenders are now seeing an eighth ...

Fri, October 11, 7:58 PM

Boring Week For Bonds and Next Week Isn't Much More Promising - Fri, October 11, 7:58 PM

MBS Recap Boring Week For Bonds and Next Week Isn't Much More Promising MBS Recap ...

Fri, October 11, 3:14 PM

No Whammies in The Data - Fri, October 11, 3:14 PM

When it comes to economic data with any real significance, today only offered two reports: PPI and Consumer Sentiment. Neither have an especially stunning pedigree of market movement capabi...

Fri, October 11, 12:45 PM

Overnight Losses Increasing After PPI Data - Fri, October 11, 12:45 PM

M/M Core PPI 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev Y/Y Core PPI 2.8 vs 2.7 f'cast, 2.4 prev Bonds were already slightly weaker after a slow burn in the overnight session.&nbs...

Thu, October 10, 8:53 PM

Bonds Turn Green Despite Plenty of Volatility - Thu, October 10, 8:53 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Turn Green Despite Plenty of Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Thu, October 10, 4:58 PM

MBS at Lows After Bostic Comments - Thu, October 10, 4:58 PM

BOSTIC: I’M OPEN TO NOT MOVING AT ONE OF THE LAST TWO MEETINGS IF THE DATA COMES IN AS I EXPECT - WSJ BOSTIC: TOTALLY COMFORTABLE WITH SKIPPING A MEETING IF THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT’...

Oliver Orlicki

Founder

The Orlicki Group

P: (813) 302-1616

www.orlickigroup.com

401 E Jackson Street Suite 2340
Tampa FL 33602

License:

205123

2127427

Ask Me a Question

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.