Selling has been slow and steady since the open. This alert doesn't indicate a specifically scary dip in prices. Rather, it's a heads up that the modest selling now accounts for an eighth o...
As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night's ceasefire deadline has come and gone with surprisingly li...
Bonds are right back in line with the levels from before the last alert after the following newswire:
TRUMP: EXTEND THE CEASEFIRE UNTIL IRAN PROPOSAL SUBMITTED
A few lenders had already rep...
Following news that neither JD Vance nor Iran will attend Wednesday's scheduled talks in Pakistan, oil prices and bond yields are at their highest levels of the day.
MBS are now down nea...
10yr yields are quickly up 4.4bps to 4.295 and MBS are down a quarter point after headlines regarding Iran having yet to agree to take part in peace talks before tonight's deadline.
The ...
Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality had other ideas... weird ones. After months an...
Bonds are selling off moderately after Trump said a ceasefire extension is unlikely and Hormuz will remain closed until a deal is signed. The bond market reaction hasn't been intense, by any mean...
Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields bei...
This alert doesn't necessarily connote any serious negative reprice risk, but it's a heads up for those who were already planning on locking today. If that describes you, there's probably no reas...
Bonds were modestly and inconsequentially stronger in the overnight session. By 8am, this brought 10yr yields just under 4.30%. Less than an hour later, yields fell to 4.23 and MBS rose ove...
MBS are at new lows for the day, down roughly 0.05 from the previous low. This is enough of drop that we could see the first few jumpy lenders pull the trigger on a reprice. Risks are much lower ...
This is more of a heads-up alert for now as the quick little selling spree has already leveled off. Causes remain unclear as there are no compelling headlines to link to the move, but it definite...
Thursday has thus far been the slowest and most sideways day since February 24th, before the start of the Iran war. A lull in war-related developments is likely helping. While there are plenty of...
Markets have plenty of war-related headlines to digest at any given moment these days. And while some of those headlines have been the biggest market movers of the month, traders are increasingly...
Bonds were fairly flat overnight and haven't moved much so far in the domestic session. More importantly, until 7am, bonds were slightly weaker even as oil prices have fallen and stocks...
Heading into the weekend, the big news was that the U.S. and Iran would meet in Pakistan to negotiate a peace deal. But by Sunday morning, the talks had failed over an impasse on Iran's nuclear e...
MBS are down nearly an eighth of a point and at new lows for the day--just barely. Some lenders are just now seeing an eighth of a point of weakness versus morning rate sheet print times. As such...
The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today's actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a bit lower than forecasts. In addition, super...
Bonds are getting back into positive territory after the following newswires:
TRUMP ASKED NETANYAHU TO REDUCE BOMBING IN LEBANON TO AID SUCCESSFUL IRAN NEGOTIATIONS, ACCORDING TO NBC REPORTS
...
The market is focusing on news surrounding an absence of new traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are up about 5 dollars in the past few hours and bond yields are following the move. ...
The overnight session leading into this morning's open was completely sideways--especially compared to yesterday's example. The boatload of econ data line items did nothing to change that. Expect...
Bonds continue sinking as the ceasefire is called into question by Iran. 10yr now unchanged on the day and MBS getting close (up only 2 ticks or 0.06). This is more than a quarter point below man...
Bonds have been retracing the overnight gains all morning in fairly linear fashion. Periodic headlines regarding ceasefire violations aren't helping.
MBS are down a quarter point from the high...
The wheels were already in motion by the time yesterday's recap came out, and participants in the MBS Live chat room were already high-fiving as we watched overnight price movement yesterday even...
The 9:30am NYSE open occasionally results in a pop of volume and volatility in the bond market and today is one of those occasions.
10yr yields are quickly up 2 bps to 4.359 and MBS are ...
Tonight brings 8pm ET deadline for Iran's response to U.S. demands (opening shipping channels among other things). If there's no response, Trump has threatened to attack critical infrastructure l...
Much of the international trading community remains on holiday today, making for lower volume and liquidity in the US. Bonds have managed to mostly shrug off Friday's stronger jobs report--a fa...
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering the even earlier-than-normal early close (12pm...
Average earnings mm (Mar)
0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.4% prev
Non Farm Payrolls (Mar)
178K vs 60K f'cast, -92K prev
Participation Rate (Mar)
61.9% vs -- f'cast, 62...
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer s...
MBS are now down just over an eighth of a point from the mid-day highs. Lenders who repriced for the better near the time of those highs could technically justify a negative reprice, but risk is ...
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning's data. Both ADP and Retail ...
