MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Slightly Weaker After PMI Data, But Some Solace From Internals - Fri, November 22, 3:00 PM

S&P Services PMI 57.0 vs 55.2 f'cast, 55.0 prev The word "internals" in economic data refers to additional components of any given report that add context and nuance beyond t...

Thu, November 21, 9:52 PM

Another Flat Day, This Time With Data - Thu, November 21, 9:52 PM

MBS Recap Another Flat Day, This Time With Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:51 PM...

Thu, November 21, 5:13 PM

Bonds Giving Up Early Gains, But Not Due to Data - Thu, November 21, 5:13 PM

It's been a bit of a chaotic morning so far, but in a narrow enough range to make it relatively boring in the bigger picture. Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed ...

Thu, November 21, 4:11 PM

MBS at Lows - Thu, November 21, 4:11 PM

MBS are still technically 1 tick (.03) higher on the day but have fallen to their weakest levels over the past hour. Lenders who priced near the AM highs are seeing 5 ticks (.16) of weaknes...

Thu, November 21, 1:34 PM

Jobless Claims Stay Low, But Continued Claims Help Offset - Thu, November 21, 1:34 PM

Jobless Claims 213k vs 220k f'cast, 219k prev Continued Claims 1908k vs 1870k f'cast, 1872k prev Philly Fed Index -5.5 vs 8.0 f'cast 10.3 prev Bonds w...

Wed, November 20, 3:34 PM

Geopolitical Headlines Behind Small But Noticeable Reactions - Wed, November 20, 3:34 PM

There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday's examples resulted in relatively modest...

Tue, November 19, 9:59 PM

Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains - Tue, November 19, 9:59 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Tue, November 19, 8:41 PM

Weakest Levels Of The Day - Tue, November 19, 8:41 PM

Bonds aren't doing anything very interesting at the moment, or today in general, but AM gains have gradually eroded to the point of MBS being near unchanged levels. 5.5 coupons are still up...

Tue, November 19, 3:31 PM

Threat of Global Nuclear War Barely Worth a Bond Rally - Tue, November 19, 3:31 PM

Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When it comes to such matters, we m...

Mon, November 18, 9:33 PM

Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend - Mon, November 18, 9:33 PM

MBS Recap Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Mon, November 18, 4:10 PM

It's The Economy - Mon, November 18, 4:10 PM

While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that economic data continues coming in hotter than ...

Fri, November 15, 8:41 PM

Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week - Fri, November 15, 8:41 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Fri, November 15, 8:40 PM

Heads-Up: MBS Off Afternoon Highs - Fri, November 15, 8:40 PM

This alert is only relevant for lenders who repriced for the better in response to the mid-day rally and more specifically, to those who repriced for the better after 1:40pm ET. Those lende...

Fri, November 15, 2:28 PM

Bonds Face Headwinds From Stronger AM Econ Data - Fri, November 15, 2:28 PM

All 3 of this morning's 8:30am economic reports were stronger than expected, and the 9:15am report was right in line with expectations. Of these, Retail Sales is the headliner, coming in at...

Fri, November 15, 1:36 PM

Retail Sales Comes in Hotter; Bonds Losing Some Ground - Fri, November 15, 1:36 PM

Retail Sales 0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast last month revised to 0.8 from 0.4 NY Fed Manufacturing 31.2 vs -0.7 f'cast, -11.9 prev Import Prices 0.3 vs -0.1 f'cast, -0.4 p...

Thu, November 14, 9:34 PM

Powell Rains on Bond Market's Mini Parade - Thu, November 14, 9:34 PM

MBS Recap Powell Rains on Bond Market's Mini Parade MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:3...

Thu, November 14, 8:11 PM

Bonds Losing More Ground After Powell Speech - Thu, November 14, 8:11 PM

MBS are now down an eighth on the day, back in line with AM lows and down at least a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are increasingly possible. ...

Thu, November 14, 7:48 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Thu, November 14, 7:48 PM

This alert is only an "alert" for lenders who repriced near the highs of the day between 12:15 and 1pm ET. MBS are down 6 ticks since then (.19). As such, lenders who repriced for the...

Thu, November 14, 3:01 PM

Morning Weakness Erased - Thu, November 14, 3:01 PM

The morning has been both straightforward and interesting. The straightforward part involved a moderate sell-off following stronger economic data. Jobless claims fell (both weekly ini...

Thu, November 14, 1:37 PM

Bonds Losing Some Ground After Jobless Claims and PPI - Thu, November 14, 1:37 PM

Jobless Claims 217k vs 223k f'cast, 221k prev Continued Claims 1.873k vs 1.888k f'cast, 1.892k prev Core PPI M/M 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core PPI Y/Y...

Wed, November 13, 6:25 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, November 13, 6:25 PM

Bonds continue selling off in a measured, linear fashion. 10yr yields are now up 3.2bps on the day at 4.456. MBS are up 3 ticks (.09), outperforming due to yield curve trading (i.e. s...

Wed, November 13, 3:19 PM

Early Gains Speak to Underlying Inflation Anxiety - Wed, November 13, 3:19 PM

Bonds managed a moderate rally in response to this morning's inflation data. While it has since been mostly erased, it was as strong of a showing as we could have possibly hoped for at the ...

Wed, November 13, 3:10 PM

MBS Down a Quarter Point From Highs - Wed, November 13, 3:10 PM

Once again, the 930am NYSE open is proving to be an obvious turning point for the bond market. In today's case, it transformed the rally into a sell-off, and has almost fully eroded the gai...

Wed, November 13, 1:38 PM

CPI Right On Target. Bonds Moderately Relieved - Wed, November 13, 1:38 PM

Core CPI M/M 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev (unrounded 0.280) Core CPI Y/Y 3.3 vs 3.3 f'cast, 3.3 prev Bonds are responding favorably to the just-released CPI data,...

Tue, November 12, 9:35 PM

Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately) - Tue, November 12, 9:35 PM

MBS Recap Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming (Unfortunately) MBS Recap Matthe...

Tue, November 12, 4:59 PM

New Lows for MBS, New Highs for Treasury Yields - Tue, November 12, 4:59 PM

Bonds have been selling off in fits and starts after an initial recovery at the NYSE open. That lasted all of 30 minutes and the selling has been linear since then. MBS are d...

Tue, November 12, 2:24 PM

Two Ways to Look At This Morning's Sell-Off - Tue, November 12, 2:24 PM

In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could be expected well into November. That's t...

Fri, November 8, 11:14 PM

Back to Uneventful Already? - Fri, November 8, 11:14 PM

MBS Recap Back to Uneventful Already? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 6:14 PM ...

Fri, November 8, 8:05 PM

New Lows of The Day For MBS - Fri, November 8, 8:05 PM

MBS aren't much lower in price than they were at the time of the last alert, but a few additional lenders may be convinced to consider negative reprices this time around. 5.5 coupons are no...

Fri, November 8, 4:46 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Fri, November 8, 4:46 PM

MBS are still near unchanged levels on the day, but that's down more than an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Later-pricing lenders may have put out rate sheets near those highs. ...

Fri, November 8, 4:41 PM

Bonds Making a Stronger Case For Buying The News After Selling The Rumor - Fri, November 8, 4:41 PM

"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon whereby traders trade all the information...

Thu, November 7, 10:12 PM

Breaking Down The Big (Mostly) Non-Fed-Related Rally - Thu, November 7, 10:12 PM

MBS Recap Breaking Down The Big (Mostly) Non-Fed-Related Rally MBS Recap Matthew G...

Thu, November 7, 8:08 PM

Bonds Bounce Right Back After a Few Friendlier Comments - Thu, November 7, 8:08 PM

Bonds have bounced back to their strongest levels of the day shortly after the last alert. This began after he said they wouldn't rule out or in the previously anticipated pace of 2025 rate...

Thu, November 7, 7:44 PM

Bonds Losing a Bit More Ground Now - Thu, November 7, 7:44 PM

If there was a specific catalyst, it was Powell saying they've been watching the run up in rates and it's nowhere near where it was a year ago. This is true, but bonds don't love hearing it...

Thu, November 7, 7:04 PM

First Move is Modestly Weaker After Fed Announcement - Thu, November 7, 7:04 PM

Fed says labor market conditions have generally eased as opposed to saying "job gains have slowed" previously Fed drops the phrase about gaining greater confidence that inflation is moving tow...

Thu, November 7, 7:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Thu, November 7, 7:00 PM

What follows is a comparison between today's newly released Fed announcement and the previous announcement. Additions are blue/underlined. Subtractions are red/struck-through. Unchang...

Thu, November 7, 5:27 PM

Token Resilience After Data. Is The Fed Going to Mention The Election? - Thu, November 7, 5:27 PM

This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps 2024 right in line with recent years......

Thu, November 7, 2:25 PM

Bonds Improving After Jobless Claims Data - Thu, November 7, 2:25 PM

Jobless Claims 221k vs 221k f'cast, 218k prev Continued Claims 1892k vs 1880k f'cast, 1853k prev Bonds were remarkably calm overnight, given the volatility that's ...

Wed, November 6, 10:29 PM

Does The Fed Still Matter? - Wed, November 6, 10:29 PM

MBS Recap Does The Fed Still Matter? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:03 PM ...

Wed, November 6, 2:45 PM

Huge Post-Election Sell-Off, The Calmest Result Imaginable - Wed, November 6, 2:45 PM

Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being surprised in 2016, markets were determined ...

Tue, November 5, 9:54 PM

Bonds Brace For Election Results - Tue, November 5, 9:54 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Brace For Election Results MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:53 PM ...

Tue, November 5, 4:08 PM

Bonds Still Willing to React to Econ Data - Tue, November 5, 4:08 PM

Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election. One could even claim that Friday's jo...

Tue, November 5, 3:05 PM

Losing Ground After ISM Data - Tue, November 5, 3:05 PM

ISM Services 56.0 vs 53.8 f'cast, 54.9 prev employment 54.0 vs 48.0 Prices 58.1 vs 58.0 There are no two ways about it: a 56.0 reading in ISM Services is a strong result.&n...

Mon, November 4, 9:13 PM

Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility - Mon, November 4, 9:13 PM

MBS Recap Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Mon, November 4, 6:33 PM

New Lows For MBS - Mon, November 4, 6:33 PM

Bonds continue correcting after the big overnight rally. MBS were already just over an eighth of a point off the AM highs at the time of the last alert. They've since lost nearly anot...

Mon, November 4, 4:20 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From The Highs - Mon, November 4, 4:20 PM

After being up more than 3/8ths of a point on the day, MBS are now up only a quarter point and down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those highs occurred around the same time m...

Mon, November 4, 3:08 PM

When is a Rally Not a Rally? (Explaining "Big" Overnight Move) - Mon, November 4, 3:08 PM

Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the shortest way to explain that we're no...

Fri, November 1, 9:07 PM