MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Caleb LeGrand

Branch Manager

CL Team – NEO Home Loans

P: (864) 569-0741

www.clteam.us

400 Executive Center Dr.
Suite 108
Greenville SC 29615

License:

NMLS #259691

Ask Me a Question

Fri, 9:56 PM

Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful - Fri, 9:56 PM

MBS Recap Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Fri, 9:04 PM

MBS Down to New Lows in Late Trading - Fri, 9:04 PM

10yr Treasuries just edged back up to perfectly unchanged levels at 4.613. While they haven't spent much time in weaker territory today, they're up from AM lows under 4.57. MBS have also...

Fri, 4:08 PM

Down Almost a Quarter Point From AM Highs - Fri, 4:08 PM

This isn't necessarily an urgent reprice alert, but more of a heads-up considering the timing if the weakness. Specifically, the AM highs only lasted through 9:15am and bonds started slidin...

Fri, 3:38 PM

Pre-3 Day Weekend Volatility is a Thing - Fri, 3:38 PM

It always bears repeating that "predictions are for suckers" and if there were a hard and fast rule about what markets do in certain scenarios, traders could take advantage of those probabilities...

Thu, 9:29 PM

2 Straight Days of Gains?! - Thu, 9:29 PM

MBS Recap 2 Straight Days of Gains?! MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:28 PM ...

Thu, 4:48 PM

Pushing Into Stronger Territory With Help From Data, Fed, and Maybe More - Thu, 4:48 PM

While it was never going to be on the same level as yesterday's CPI in terms of market movement potential, Retail Sales was likely to be today's most relevant data. The early price action confirm...

Thu, 1:36 PM

Bonds Dialing Back Some Overnight Losses on Retail Sales Miss - Thu, 1:36 PM

Retail Sales 0.4 vs 0.6 f'cast, 0.7 prev Retail Sales excluding autos 0.4 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.2 prev Jobless Claims 217k vs 210k f'cast, 201k prev Continued...

Wed, 10:00 PM

CPI Lived Up To Market Moving Potential And Then Some - Wed, 10:00 PM

MBS Recap CPI Lived Up To Market Moving Potential And Then Some MBS Recap Matthew ...

Wed, 3:37 PM

If You Needed Proof That Inflation Data is Back in Fashion... - Wed, 3:37 PM

On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market to inflation data. Said shift was frequently r...

Wed, 1:33 PM

Much Stronger After CPI Comes in Soft - Wed, 1:33 PM

Monthly Core CPI 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev unrounded: 0.225 vs 0.240 Annual Core CPI 3.2 vs 3.3 f'cast, 3.3 prev Bonds were already in stronger territory to st...

Tue, 9:45 PM

Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers - Tue, 9:45 PM

MBS Recap Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers MBS Recap Matth...

Tue, 5:02 PM

Why Isn't PPI Helping Bonds This Morning? - Tue, 5:02 PM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) may not be nearly as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it has proven capable of producing logical reactions in the past when it's come i...

Tue, 1:35 PM

Moderate Gains After Sharply Lower PPI - Tue, 1:35 PM

Core PPI M/M 0.0 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core PPI Y/Y 3.5 vs 3.8 f'cast, 3.5 prev The Producer Price Index came in much lower than expected at the core level and sl...

Mon, 9:39 PM

Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness - Mon, 9:39 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:38 P...

Mon, 4:21 PM

MBS Down an Eighth of a Point - Mon, 4:21 PM

Bonds have been selling gradually so far this morning. 10yr yields are up 3.7bps at 4.802 after being nearly unchanged at the open. MBS were also unchanged in early trading but are now down 5 ...

Mon, 3:36 PM

Quiet Monday For Data. Bonds Staying on Defense Ahead of Inflation Reports - Mon, 3:36 PM

After last Friday's jobs report, the evaporation of Fed rate cut probability has been a common refrain. While it's true that there was an obvious shift in both long and short term rate...

Fri, January 10, 8:48 PM

Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree - Fri, January 10, 8:48 PM

MBS Recap Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:46 ...

Fri, January 10, 6:20 PM

Down a Quarter Point From Post-NFP Highs - Fri, January 10, 6:20 PM

Different lenders may approach this scenario differently depending on when they priced this morning and how conservative the rate sheet was. Bottom line, MBS are down a quarter point from t...

Fri, January 10, 3:16 PM

Highest Yields in Over a Year After Super Strong Jobs Report - Fri, January 10, 3:16 PM

The morning trading is as straightforward as it is unpleasant. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations (256k vs 160k f'cast) and the unemployment rate also improved (4.1 vs 4.2). While the Fe...

Fri, January 10, 1:32 PM

Bonds Tanking After Surge in Payroll Growth - Fri, January 10, 1:32 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 256k vs 160k f'cast, 227k prev Unemployment Rate 4.1 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.2 prev Bonds are instantly and significantly higher in yield after the obviou...

Thu, January 9, 7:04 PM

No Data, No Volatility - Thu, January 9, 7:04 PM

MBS Recap No Data, No Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2:04 PM No...

Thu, January 9, 5:37 PM

MBS Still Positive, But Down an Eighth From Highs - Thu, January 9, 5:37 PM

Trading remains slow, sparse, and mostly inconsequential. MBS are still 1 tick (.03) higher on the day but down an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Lenders who released rate sheet...

Thu, January 9, 4:03 PM

Bonds on Light Duty Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report - Thu, January 9, 4:03 PM

Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due to the national day of mourning, bonds w...

Wed, January 8, 8:29 PM

Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways - Wed, January 8, 8:29 PM

MBS Recap Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:27 PM ...

Wed, January 8, 2:58 PM

No Whammies in AM Data, Fairly Friendly Fed Comments - Wed, January 8, 2:58 PM

Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (markets still open a half day). As such,...

Tue, January 7, 9:21 PM

Orderly Move to Highest Yields in 8 Months - Tue, January 7, 9:21 PM

MBS Recap Orderly Move to Highest Yields in 8 Months MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Tue, January 7, 4:54 PM

Bonds on The Run After Data - Tue, January 7, 4:54 PM

High hopes and crossed fingers may help one's outlook in advance of key economic data, but they are powerless once the data comes out. In today's case, the Job Openings data coincided with ...

Tue, January 7, 3:03 PM

Hotter Data. Bonds Selling - Tue, January 7, 3:03 PM

Job Openings 8.098m vs 7.7m f'cast, 7.839m f'cast ISM Services 54.1 vs 53.3 f'cast, 52.1 prev ISM Services Prices 64.4 vs 57.5 f'cast, 58.2 prev There...

Mon, January 6, 9:12 PM

Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report - Mon, January 6, 9:12 PM

MBS Recap Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report MBS Recap Matthew G...

Mon, January 6, 3:36 PM

Down More Than a Quarter Point From AM Highs - Mon, January 6, 3:36 PM

Despite some overnight strength, bonds have been selling steadily during domestic hours. MBS are down just over an eighth of a point on the day, but more than a quarter point from the AM hi...

Mon, January 6, 3:31 PM

No Help From Econ Data as Bonds Prepare For Supply - Mon, January 6, 3:31 PM

Treasuries made modest gains in overseas trading, but yields are heading higher during domestic hours. There are two things working against us this morning. The first is more of a gen...

Fri, January 3, 10:29 PM

Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare - Fri, January 3, 10:29 PM

MBS Recap Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare MBS Recap Matthew...

Fri, January 3, 7:28 PM

Treading Water at Weakest Levels - Fri, January 3, 7:28 PM

This is more of a "heads-up" alert as there haven't been any major changes in prices in the past few hours. Instead, Treasury yields have trickled gently to the highest levels of the day wi...

Fri, January 3, 5:23 PM

Decent Data Keeping Bonds in Check - Fri, January 3, 5:23 PM

Today's ISM Manufacturing report was the only top tier economic data this week. While we wouldn't say it was "strong" by any means, it wasn't weak either. More importantly, it was hig...

Fri, January 3, 3:07 PM

Losing Some Ground After ISM Data - Fri, January 3, 3:07 PM

ISM Manufacturing 49.3 vs 48.4 f'cast, 48.4 prev ISM Prices 52.5 vs 51.7 f'cast, 48.4 prev The ISM Manufacturing data wasn't too far from forecasts, but this week's...

Thu, January 2, 9:38 PM

Uneventful Start to 2025 - Thu, January 2, 9:38 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Start to 2025 MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:37 PM ...

Thu, January 2, 4:21 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Most Recent High - Thu, January 2, 4:21 PM

Bonds have steadily been giving up the overnight gains despite remaining in positive territory on the day. 10yr yields are still down about half a bp at 4.565, but that's up from lows of 4....

Thu, January 2, 3:11 PM

Stronger Start Despite Some Selling After Data - Thu, January 2, 3:11 PM

Bonds were steadily stronger overnight, both in Asia and Europe. 10yr yields and MBS had both fully erased Tuesday's losses within the first 30 minutes of domestic trading. That's whe...

Tue, December 31, 7:20 PM

Year-End Trading. No Big Deal - Tue, December 31, 7:20 PM

MBS Recap Year-End Trading. No Big Deal MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2:19 PM ...

Tue, December 31, 5:24 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Tue, December 31, 5:24 PM

While some lenders just set a conservative rate sheet and clock out on New Year's Eve, any lender that's paying attention is increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices. Month end ...

Tue, December 31, 4:08 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Tue, December 31, 4:08 PM

Things look a bit worse than they actually are on the charts due to a narrow overall range, but bonds have definitely shifted into weaker territory starting after 10:30am. MBS are now down ...

Tue, December 31, 3:00 PM

A Very Easy Explanation For MBS Underperformance - Tue, December 31, 3:00 PM

The day begins with MBS in slightly weaker territory while Treasuries are slightly stronger. The discrepancy isn't really big enough to merit any urgent explanation, but either way, there a...

Mon, December 30, 8:56 PM

Feel Free to Enjoy The Rally, But Don't Read Too Much Into It - Mon, December 30, 8:56 PM

MBS Recap Feel Free to Enjoy The Rally, But Don't Read Too Much Into It MBS Recap ...

Mon, December 30, 3:49 PM

What's Up With These Crazy Gains on Monday Morning?! - Mon, December 30, 3:49 PM

Stop the presses! MBS are up almost 3/8ths of a point in early trading and 10yr yields have surged lower by 8bps. This is a massive and miraculous rally that surely must have some com...

Fri, December 27, 9:57 PM

Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful - Fri, December 27, 9:57 PM

MBS Recap Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:56 P...

Fri, December 27, 7:48 PM

New Lows and Modest Reprice Risk - Fri, December 27, 7:48 PM

MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and just barely an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Some later-pricing lenders released rates during those highs, so if they're feeling jumpy, ...

Fri, December 27, 2:31 PM

Weaker in Europe, But Reasonably Resilient in Early US Trading - Fri, December 27, 2:31 PM

Not that any of this week's trading activity matters in the bigger picture, but things have been reasonably resilient after Monday's selling. Tuesday and Thursday saw more selling, but each...

Thu, December 26, 9:32 PM

Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction - Thu, December 26, 9:32 PM

MBS Recap Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Thu, December 26, 2:15 PM

Have You Heard The One About "Path of Least Resistance?" - Thu, December 26, 2:15 PM

Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting right back to the messaging that's been in force...

Tue, December 24, 3:11 PM

Time For One of Those "Path of Least Resistance" Headlines - Tue, December 24, 3:11 PM

Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this result in bond analysts dusting off phrases l...

Caleb LeGrand

Branch Manager

CL Team – NEO Home Loans

P: (864) 569-0741

www.clteam.us

400 Executive Center Dr.
Suite 108
Greenville SC 29615

License:

NMLS #259691

Ask Me a Question

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.