MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Jon Bodan

President

The Perpetual | Rockstar Wholesale

P: (770) 972-4955

www.theperpetual.com

Rockstar Wholesale

Rockstar Private Capita...

1325 Satellite Blvd NW
Building 1100, Suite 1120
Suwanee GA 30024

License:

136267

A message from Jon Bodan:

Get ready to rock and figure out what your payment might look like. Remember that this doesn't include Property Taxes, Property Insurance, and PMI (if it applies to you). If you figure $150/mo for insurance, 1% of the property price for taxes, and .5% of the loan amount per year for PMI you should be pretty close, though.

Fri, 4:52 PM

Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling - Fri, 4:52 PM

MBS Recap Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 1...

Fri, 1:58 PM

Logically Weaker After Solid Jobs Report, But It's a Ghost Town - Fri, 1:58 PM

Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering the even earlier-than-normal early close (12pm...

Fri, 12:37 PM

Bonds Under Pressure After Balmy NFP Headline - Fri, 12:37 PM

Average earnings mm (Mar) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.4% prev Non Farm Payrolls (Mar) 178K vs 60K f'cast, -92K prev Participation Rate (Mar) 61.9% vs -- f'cast, 62...

Thu, 7:54 PM

Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes - Thu, 7:54 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:53 PM ...

Thu, 1:11 PM

Trump Speech Fuels Another Leg Up For Oil and Yields - Thu, 1:11 PM

Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic trading day, we knew the speech would offer s...

Wed, 8:07 PM

Surprisingly Light Volatility - Wed, 8:07 PM

MBS Recap Surprisingly Light Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:06 PM ...

Wed, 6:04 PM

MBS Down an Eighth From Highs - Wed, 6:04 PM

MBS are now down just over an eighth of a point from the mid-day highs. Lenders who repriced for the better near the time of those highs could technically justify a negative reprice, but risk is ...

Wed, 1:38 PM

Data and War Headlines Erase Overnight Gains - Wed, 1:38 PM

Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) after this morning's data. Both ADP and Retail ...

Tue, 8:28 PM

Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion - Tue, 8:28 PM

MBS Recap Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion MBS Recap Matthew ...

Tue, 8:28 PM

Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite Higher Oil Prices - Tue, 8:28 PM

MBS Recap Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite Higher Oil Prices MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Tue, 4:46 PM

Bonds Rallying on De-Escalation Headlines - Tue, 4:46 PM

TRUMP TO NEW YORK POST: MY MISSION WAS TO PREVENT IRAN FROM POSSESSING A NUCLEAR WEAPON, AND I SUCCEEDED IRAN'S PRESIDENT PEZESHKIAN: WE'RE READY TO END WAR, BUT WANT GUARANTEES This doesn'...

Tue, 2:35 PM

War Headlines Help Bond Recovery Continue - Tue, 2:35 PM

The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Markets rallied nearly as ...

Mon, 8:14 PM

Reprice Risk Increasing - Mon, 8:14 PM

MBS are still up 3/8ths on the day, but down roughly a quarter point from AM highs. Lenders who priced/repriced during those highs are increasingly likely to be considering negative reprices.&nbs...

Mon, 6:05 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Mon, 6:05 PM

Just a heads up, mainly for lenders who've already repriced for the better: MBS are still up almost half a point on the day, but they've fallen just over an eighth of a point from intraday highs....

Mon, 1:12 PM

Bonds Mostly Finding Their Own Buyers - Mon, 1:12 PM

There are three distinct reasons that could account for bonds paradoxically rallying overnight despite oil prices remaining high and an absence of meaningful de-escalation in the Iran war. ...

Fri, March 27, 8:16 PM

Some Resilience After AM Weakness - Fri, March 27, 8:16 PM

MBS Recap Some Resilience After AM Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:15 PM ...

Fri, March 27, 2:12 PM

Bonds Fade De-Escalation Hopes - Fri, March 27, 2:12 PM

Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instead opted to stick with prevailing momentum (lo...

Thu, March 26, 8:11 PM

That Escalated Quickly - Thu, March 26, 8:11 PM

MBS Recap That Escalated Quickly MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:10 PM Th...

Thu, March 26, 4:33 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, March 26, 4:33 PM

MBS are now down 14 ticks (.44) on the day and roughly a quarter point from the AM highs. 10yr yields are up 7bps at 4.402. There is no individual, precipitous market mover. Oil, stocks,...

Thu, March 26, 3:24 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Thu, March 26, 3:24 PM

MBS have drifted lower by just over an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Because those highs coincided with some lenders' rate sheet print times, negative reprice risk cannot be ruled ou...

Thu, March 26, 1:20 PM

Oil And Yields Move Back Up - Thu, March 26, 1:20 PM

Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds into weaker territory. Said differently...

Wed, March 25, 8:04 PM

Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why? - Wed, March 25, 8:04 PM

MBS Recap Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:04 PM ...

Wed, March 25, 1:39 PM

Bonds Showing Some Optimism About Turning Point in The War - Wed, March 25, 1:39 PM

There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon). Yesterday's developments (Trump comments on...

Tue, March 24, 8:27 PM

Bonds Surging to Best Levels on Ceasefire Headlines - Tue, March 24, 8:27 PM

Apparently, bonds aren't quite done responding to escalation/de-escalation headlines for the day, and the latest examples are having the biggest impact. ISRAELI CHANNEL 12: ONE-MONTH CEA...

Tue, March 24, 8:03 PM

Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile - Tue, March 24, 8:03 PM

MBS Recap Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile MBS Recap ...

Tue, March 24, 5:07 PM

Weakest Levels After 2yr Auction and War Headlines - Tue, March 24, 5:07 PM

2yr Treasury auctions rarely hit the longer end of the bond market, but today's is an exception. Around the same time, there were also headlines regarding troop deployments to Iran. MBS are no...

Tue, March 24, 1:57 PM

Weakest Levels of The Morning - Tue, March 24, 1:57 PM

MBS are now down 3/8ths on the day and more than a quarter point from the AM highs. Lenders who are already out with rates will likely have already accounted for most of the weakness. So there's ...

Tue, March 24, 1:43 PM

Victory For Cynics as Ceasefire Rebound is Already Over - Tue, March 24, 1:43 PM

Even though there were doubts about their scope and impact, yesterday morning's headlines introduced the prospect of some sort of ceasefire in the Iran war. Markets traded accordingly, including ...

Mon, March 23, 7:54 PM

Decent Gains Amid De-Escalation Headlines - Mon, March 23, 7:54 PM

MBS Recap Decent Gains Amid De-Escalation Headlines MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:5...

Mon, March 23, 4:00 PM

MBS Well Off Highs - Mon, March 23, 4:00 PM

As Iran pushes back on news regarding talks with the US, bonds are quickly correcting. MBS are still up 5 ticks (.16) on the day but down almost 3/8ths from the highs. Lenders who aggressiv...

Mon, March 23, 1:26 PM

Big Early AM Rally Gets Bonds Back in The Green - Mon, March 23, 1:26 PM

Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. Then at 7:04am, newswires indicated "talks" betw...

Fri, March 20, 9:21 PM

Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode - Fri, March 20, 9:21 PM

MBS Recap Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:19 PM ...

Fri, March 20, 6:58 PM

New Lows. Reprice Risk is Ongoing - Fri, March 20, 6:58 PM

One last alert for the road today. No sense in overdoing it, but it's worth noting that MBS are now at new lows with 5.0 coupons down nearly a full point on the day and 10yr yields up 14.2b...

Fri, March 20, 2:52 PM

Assume Negative Reprice Potential Until Further Notice - Fri, March 20, 2:52 PM

Today is a bit unique in that bonds started weaker and have been falling steadily all day. Lender pricing strategies vary greatly in this conditions. Some will price in more weakness. Other...

Fri, March 20, 1:46 PM

Central Banks Cite Oil to Steal Spotlight From Oil - Fri, March 20, 1:46 PM

In the space of 2 days, central banks have completely stolen the spotlight from energy prices, but they have relied on energy prices to do so. More simply put, markets had been following oil pric...

Thu, March 19, 7:48 PM

Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil - Thu, March 19, 7:48 PM

MBS Recap Volatile Day Thanks to Central Banks And, Eventually Oil MBS Recap Matth...

Thu, March 19, 5:24 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing For Some Lenders - Thu, March 19, 5:24 PM

MBS are down 6 ticks on the day (.19) and roughly 6 ticks from the AM highs. Lenders who priced or repriced around the time of those highs could be considering negative reprices.

Thu, March 19, 2:13 PM

Back in Positive Territory as US Bonds Follow EU - Thu, March 19, 2:13 PM

The ECB rate announcement and comments have been this morning's dark horse market mover. The initial reaction contributed to selling in Treasuries, but in the past hour, additional ECB comments h...

Thu, March 19, 12:55 PM

Bonds Ignore Oil in Favor of Repricing The Rate Outlook - Thu, March 19, 12:55 PM

At almost any moment in March 2026, a glance at the "10yr vs oil price" chart has revealed sufficient correlation to blame the bond rout on the energy price spiral. But the correlation is spotty ...

Wed, March 18, 9:04 PM

Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears - Wed, March 18, 9:04 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Weren't Prepared For Fed's Inflation Fears MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Wed, March 18, 6:56 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, March 18, 6:56 PM

MBS are now down 9 ticks (.28) and almost 6 ticks (.19) from some lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are becoming increasingly possible.

Wed, March 18, 6:42 PM

Weakest levels as Powell answers inflation questions - Wed, March 18, 6:42 PM

MBS are at the lows of the day, down 6 ticks (.19) overall and nearly an eighth of a point from the most recent highs. Reprice risk is limited unless we lost more ground from here. 10yr ...

Wed, March 18, 6:05 PM

Minimal Reaction to Fed Announcement and Dots So Far - Wed, March 18, 6:05 PM

If anything, bonds are slightly stronger than before the announcement, but volume and volatility are insanely low for a Fed day (this morning's PPI/Oil trade was much bigger). Dots were lit...

Wed, March 18, 6:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, March 18, 6:00 PM

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. been little...

Wed, March 18, 1:14 PM

Overnight Gains Erased by PPI/Oil. Fed on Deck - Wed, March 18, 1:14 PM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) was this morning's only big ticket econ data and calling it "big ticket" is a bit of a stretch. PPI often passes without a trace, but can occasionally get an obviou...

Tue, March 17, 8:07 PM

Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger - Tue, March 17, 8:07 PM

MBS Recap Sleepy Pre-Fed Day, But Slightly Stronger MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:0...

Tue, March 17, 2:45 PM

Another Solid Start, But Without as Much Help From Oil - Tue, March 17, 2:45 PM

Until the end of the Iran war, bond traders are keeping oil prices on their screens and comparing oil price movement against bond market movement as the first task on the dail...

Mon, March 16, 7:24 PM

Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower - Mon, March 16, 7:24 PM

MBS Recap Simple, Strong Correlation With Oil Leaves Yields Lower MBS Recap Matthe...

Mon, March 16, 2:38 PM

Stronger Start as Markets Hope For De-Escalation - Mon, March 16, 2:38 PM

With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during European hours. Early domestic trading kept th...

Fri, March 13, 8:40 PM

Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week - Fri, March 13, 8:40 PM

MBS Recap Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:38 ...

A message from Jon Bodan:

Get ready to rock and figure out what your payment might look like. Remember that this doesn't include Property Taxes, Property Insurance, and PMI (if it applies to you). If you figure $150/mo for insurance, 1% of the property price for taxes, and .5% of the loan amount per year for PMI you should be pretty close, though.

Jon Bodan

President

The Perpetual | Rockstar Wholesale

P: (770) 972-4955

www.theperpetual.com

Rockstar Wholesale

Rockstar Private Capita...

1325 Satellite Blvd NW
Building 1100, Suite 1120
Suwanee GA 30024

License:

136267

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.