MBS are now down a quarter point on the day and just over a quarter from the highs. Lenders who priced early in the morning are seeing 6 ticks (.19) of weakness from rate sheet print times ...
Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somewhat more debatable with headline lev...
S&P Manufacturing PMI
52.9 vs 52.0 f'cast, 52.0 prev
Bonds drifted sideways to slightly stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields ultimately trading as low as 4.186 ...
Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the notion that market move for logical underlyin...
MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and just over an eighth from PM highs. Lenders who repriced for the better earlier could technically justify a negative reprice.
Prices ar...
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed's favorite inflation index and despite c...
Although the initial reaction to data was modestly positive, bonds reversed course in the past few minutes and are now at the weakest levels of the day. Catalysts are scarce and open to deb...
Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matter to the seasoned bond watcher (Durable Goods...
Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems at first glance. While there's always s...
Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A at today's congressional testimony are showing the market a clearer path to the possibility of rate cuts in the near future. While Powell certainly sto...
This is definitely one of those "heads-up" type of alerts that you should read before you simply lock.
If you have not yet seen a positive reprice from the lender in question, there's virtuall...
A vast majority of long-time bond watchers share the same general understanding of how war impacts rates. Specifically, the increased global economic uncertainty drives safe-haven demand for US T...
Much like the Friday after Thanksgiving, we have to wonder what the point is of a trading session without any neighbors (there's actually some guiding principle in setting holiday closures that t...
MBS have shed another 3 ticks (.09) since the last alert. We're still up 1 tick on the day, but down 7 ticks (.22) from the highs. With that, jumpier lenders could more legitimately c...
MBS are still up 2 ticks on the day, but down exactly an eighth of a point from pre-Fed highs (but only half of that weakness has happened since the Fed announcement).
10yr yields are up...
No rate cut
No major changes to statement
Notable changes to dots as seen in chart below
Bottom line, the dot plot shows about half of the Fed moving toward the 0-1 cut camp and the o...
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low lev...
Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the stock market recovery in May (or the under...
Bonds were decently stronger in the overnight session, but not for any new, specific reasons. Trading levels have been cutting an increasingly narrow, sideways range. Until that chang...
MBS had a decent rally into 10:30am but have been losing ground steadily since noon. Chatter surrounds the anticipation over the Senate unveiling its version of the spending bill. 10y...
After rallying fairly well last Wednesday and Thursday, bonds pulled back on Friday, but not enough to erase more than half of the week's gains. The new week is starting out in uneventful fashion...
Bonds have been selling fairly steadily throughout the session in an intentional move to the sidelines ahead of higher-than-normal potential volatility over the weekend. This isn't just abo...
Consumer Sentiment
60.5 vs 53.5 f'cast, 52.2 prev
1yr inflation expectations
5.1 vs 6.6 prev
Consumer sentiment has been a sub-par market mover at best, recently, b...
By 8pm last night, news of Israel's attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more than a month. Given the alarming nature of some ...
This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this was good enough for a reasonably big rally.&...
Core MM PPI
0.1 vs 0.3 f'cast, -0.2 prev
Core YY PPI
3.0 vs 3.1 f'cast, 3.2 prev
Monthly Headline PPI
0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.2 prev
Jobless Claims
24...
Heading into today's CPI data, our stance was that we'd need to see the monthly core number come in at 0.1 vs 0.3 in order to see much of a friendly response, and that is exactly what's playing o...
Core CPI m/m
0.130 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev
Core CPI y/y
2.8 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.8 prev
Bonds were modestly weaker in the overnight session but have been willing ...
Although bonds are experiencing a small amount of volatility this morning, it isn't consequential in the bigger picture. Quick-but-modest weakness at 10:15am ET has essentially taken MBS ba...
Many lenders are not yet out with their first rate sheet of the day. Others tend to have a slightly higher bar for reprice risk when bonds sell off at this time of day. All that to say that repri...
Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had last Friday's jobs report been as weak as some ...
