MBS are now down more than a quarter point on the day (10 ticks or 0.31) after headlines regarding truce talks between Ukraine and Russia. Most lenders are seeing at least an eighth of a po...
Bonds were initially stronger at the start of overnight trading in Asia, but began selling off at a fairly steady clip almost immediately. By the start of domestic trading, the weakness was...
Bonds traded two ways after the JOLTS data and new tariff headlines, but yields have been moving steadily higher since 10:40am, tracking a rebound in equities markets.
10yr yields are now up 4...
Job Openings
7.74m vs 7.63m f'cast, 7.508m prev
Job Quits (higher is worse for bonds)
3.266m vs 3.197m prev
Although the JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover surv...
Over the weekend, Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession this year. He replied that although he hates to predict such things, "there is a period of transition, because what we're doing i...
Some lenders have already repriced for the worse, but there will likely be quite a few more as MBS are now down to new lows for the day. 5.5 coupons are roughly a quarter point below ...
This may prove to be more of a "heads-up" than a true alert, but MBS are down an eighth of a point from the most recent price plateau from 11:20-12:20 ET. UMBS 5.0 coupons are down a bit mo...
Today's jobs report was a mixed bag with the most important number also being the most boring. Headline job creation came in at 151k vs 160k, which is so close as to not even matter. As a r...
There are a few moving pieces to the bond market narrative on Thursday. The general backdrop consists of yield curve steepening (fancy words that mean 10yr yields are moving higher relative...
Commerce Secretary Lutnick said in an interview that Canada and Mexico tariff reprieve would include all products currently in USMCA (which is most of them). This basically kicks the can fo...
Jobless Claims
221k vs 235k f'cast, 242k prev
Bonds were mixed overnight with longer-term Treasuries in weaker territory and shorter term Treasuries (and MBS) in better shape.&n...
MBS are now down 3 ticks (.09) on the day and just over a quarter point from the AM highs that aligned with many lenders' rate sheet print times. As such, negative reprices are increasingly likel...
Wednesday marks the return of market-moving economic data after Tuesday's lull. ADP Employment was up first and it came out much weaker than expected. Bonds never like to read too much into...
ISM Services
53.5 vs 52.6 f'cast, 52.8 prev
prices 62.6 vs 60.0
employment 53.9 vs 52.3
The reaction is fairly modest so far, but it has been good for nearly an eighth of a...
ADP Employment
77k vs 140k f'cast, 186k prev
The bond market has a hit and miss relationship with ADP data. Although it broadly correlates with nonfarm payrolls, traders have bee...
MBS are now down almost a quarter point from the highs in 5.5 coupons and almost 3/8ths in 5.0 coupons. 10yr yields are up 5.2bps at 4.207 in a move that largely matches the cadence of the ...
If bonds level off and reverse course, this may end up being more of a "heads-up" type of alert, but reprice risk can't be ruled out completely at the moment.
Treasuries have been sellin...
While much of the recent improvement in the bond market can be tied to various economic reports, there's been more than a normal amount of improvement due to " risk-off " trading. In other words,...
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory with most of the losses seen right at the start of the overnight session in Asia. With it being the start of a new month, the volatility i...
It's no secret that we don't view the PCE inflation data as being anywhere remotely as big of a market mover as CPI. Today's trading is adding another notch on that belt, but it's important...
As of yesterday afternoon, bonds could seemingly do no wrong this week. Every opportunity for traders to circle the wagons and push back against the persistent rally was instead met with mo...
While the economic calendar may look a little busy today, there are, once again, no big ticket market movers in play. The last time data had an impact was last week. Since then, the n...
They day begins with 10yr yields down more than 10bps and trading under 4.30% at times. MBS are up 3/8ths with 5.5 UMBS coupons getting close to par. All of this transpired without any big-...
After a strong finish last week, there was some natural risk that short-covering and position squaring added to the gains, thus increasing the chance of some weakness this morning. While that may...
MBS are very close to their February 5th levels, which were the best since the morning of December 18th before the Fed announcement (and dot plot) caused a big sell-off. Today, it's econ da...
There's an interesting little case study in this morning's market movement. Bonds had been sideway to very slightly weaker overnight, but began to rally at 7am ET. The most notable market h...
Bonds extended yesterday's selling streak in the overnight session, but not in an alarming or serious way. Momentum reversed at 9am without any clear catalyst apart from the technical ceiling at ...
Bonds have been drifting into weaker territory after hitting the best levels of the day just before the noon hour. That drift has now resulted in the weakest levels of the day with MBS down...
