MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Sydney Andrews

Mortgage Professional

Loanenvy.com

M: (818) 359-0744

E: sydney@loanenvy.com

Loanenvy.com

www.loanenvy.com

License:

NMLS#47982

Ask Me a Question

Fri, 10:04 PM

Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data - Fri, 10:04 PM

MBS Recap Straightforward Gains After Important Inflation Data MBS Recap Matthew G...

Fri, 3:58 PM

Bonds Rallying Despite Higher Core PCE - Fri, 3:58 PM

After yesterday's quarter over quarter core PCE price index came in 0.2% higher than expected, we knew today's monthly PCE data would have to include higher numbers divided across the months...

Fri, 12:39 PM

PCE Slightly Higher, But Bonds Are OK With It - Fri, 12:39 PM

Core M/M PCE 0.2 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.1 prev (unrounded = 0.182%) Core Y/Y PCE 2.6 vs 2.5 f'cast, 2.6 prev Incomes 0.2 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.4 prev Outlays ...

Thu, 7:29 PM

Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range - Thu, 7:29 PM

MBS Recap Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range MBS Recap &...

Thu, 3:44 PM

Strong Start Despite Data Driven Volatility - Thu, 3:44 PM

It was easy to question the notion of "data dependence" in the first half of the week, largely because there wasn't much in terms of meaningful economic data. There were also several instan...

Thu, 12:39 PM

Stronger GDP/PCE Data Eroding Some of The Overnight Rally - Thu, 12:39 PM

Jobless Claims 235k vs 238k f'cast, 245k prev Durable Goods -6.6 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Nondefense ex-air Durable Goods 1.0 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.9 prev ...

Wed, 8:30 PM

Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent? - Wed, 8:30 PM

MBS Recap Whatever Happened to Bonds Being Data Dependent? MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Wed, 6:00 PM

Now in Weaker Territory; Reprice Risk Increasing - Wed, 6:00 PM

Losses have continued after the 5yr Treasury auction and bonds are now in negative territory. 10yr yields are up 1.7bps at 4.268. MBS are now down 1 tick (.03) on the day and 6 ticks ...

Wed, 5:21 PM

Down About an Eighth After 5yr Auction - Wed, 5:21 PM

5yr auction 4.121 vs 4.110 expectations bid to cover 2.4 vs 2.36x avg Bonds are losing ground after the 5yr Treasury auction even though it was only slightly weake...

Wed, 4:07 PM

Bonds Shake Off Stronger Services PMI to Hold Overnight Gains - Wed, 4:07 PM

While they may not be the most highly consequential economic reports on any given month, today's S&P Global PMIs were our best shot to see some volatility in the bond market today. In t...

Wed, 1:48 PM

Mixed S&P PMI Data; First Move is Weaker, But Not Much - Wed, 1:48 PM

S&P Services PMI 56 vs 55 f'cast, 55.3 prev S&P Manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 51.7 f'cast, 51.6 prev These PMIs from S&P Global are the day's most relevant ...

Tue, 8:23 PM

Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category? - Tue, 8:23 PM

MBS Recap Afternoon Weakness For Longer-Term Bonds. Are MBS in That Category? MBS Recap ...

Tue, 8:06 PM

MBS at Lows, Down an Eighth from AM Highs - Tue, 8:06 PM

While there were technically a few MBS bids that suggest a 5 tick (.16) gap, the modal high is exactly an eighth of a point above current levels in 5.5 UMBS. This leaves the jumpiest lender...

Tue, 3:39 PM

Uneventful, Slightly Stronger Start; Light Calendar - Tue, 3:39 PM

This morning's market movement continues to build a case against yesterday's mid-day sell-off being serious and purposeful. Bonds have continued to rally back gradually since topping out ju...

Mon, 9:02 PM

Mid-Day Mystery Move But no Impact on Bigger Picture - Mon, 9:02 PM

MBS Recap Mid-Day Mystery Move But no Impact on Bigger Picture MBS Recap Matthew G...

Mon, 3:36 PM

Bonds Selling Off - Mon, 3:36 PM

Modest overnight gains are quickly evaporating. MBS are down 2 ticks on the day and more than an eighth of a point from rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are becoming a risk. ...

Mon, 3:22 PM

Total and Complete Absence of a Reaction to Biden Bowing Out - Mon, 3:22 PM

If there was any remaining doubt that recent political headlines were given too much credit for impacting the bond market, it was removed late Sunday night. When Treasury trading began for ...

Fri, July 19, 9:22 PM

Super Duper Flat After Overnight Losses - Fri, July 19, 9:22 PM

MBS Recap Super Duper Flat After Overnight Losses MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:21 ...

Fri, July 19, 2:26 PM

Lower Volume And Corporate Bond Issuance Pushing Yields Higher - Fri, July 19, 2:26 PM

This week's bond rally hit a wall at the 3pm close on Wednesday. There's been gradual upward pressure since then with today's overnight session seeing some of the fastest selling. ...

Thu, July 18, 9:08 PM

Morning Volatility, Afternoon Drift - Thu, July 18, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap Morning Volatility, Afternoon Drift MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:07 PM ...

Thu, July 18, 6:59 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Thu, July 18, 6:59 PM

MBS are now at the lows of the day, down 5 ticks (.16) in 5.5 coupons. Lenders who priced near the highs of the morning are seeing 6 ticks (.16) of weakness. 10yr yields are ...

Thu, July 18, 4:49 PM

Jobless Claims Helping Bonds Push Back Against Overnight Weakness - Thu, July 18, 4:49 PM

Today's Jobless Claims report is for the week ending July 13th. This is important because the establishment survey for the big jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is conducted on the week that i...

Thu, July 18, 12:35 PM

Modest Gains After Higher Jobless Claims - Thu, July 18, 12:35 PM

Jobless Claims 243k vs 230k f'cast, 223k f'cast Continued Claims 1867k vs 1860k f'cast, 1847k prev Philly Fed Index 13.9 vs 2.9 f'cast, 1.3 prev Philly F...

Wed, July 17, 8:43 PM

More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims? - Wed, July 17, 8:43 PM

MBS Recap More Data Defiance. Maybe It's All About Claims? MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Wed, July 17, 3:28 PM

Uneventful Start And an Uneventful Calendar - Wed, July 17, 3:28 PM

Just because an economic calendar is full doesn't mean it's of any major importance to the bond market. Today fits the bill with the two economic headliners being Housing Starts and Industr...

Tue, July 16, 8:16 PM

Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger - Tue, July 16, 8:16 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Shake Off Retail Sales Impact to End Stronger MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Tue, July 16, 2:41 PM

Two Kinds of Flat - Tue, July 16, 2:41 PM

Retail Sales was/is the biggest data point of the week and it came out perfectly unchanged. This was as-expected according to some data aggregators and stronger than expected according to o...

Tue, July 16, 12:34 PM

Giving up Overnight Gains Despite As-Expected Retail Sales - Tue, July 16, 12:34 PM

Retail Sales 0.0 vs 0.0 f'cast, 0.1 prev Retail Sales Excluding Gas and Autos +0.8, highest since January Despite coming in right in line with forecasts at the head...

Mon, July 15, 8:45 PM

The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies - Mon, July 15, 8:45 PM

MBS Recap The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:44 PM ...

Mon, July 15, 5:46 PM

MBS at Lows, But Reprice Risk is Modest at Best - Mon, July 15, 5:46 PM

MBS have fallen fairly gently to the lows of the day with 5.5 coupons now down 6 ticks (.19). That said, lenders are seeing a maximum of an eighth of a point of weakness from intraday highs...

Mon, July 15, 3:40 PM

Another Chance to Assess Market Sensitivity to Politics - Mon, July 15, 3:40 PM

While there's no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, history suggests--at the very least--that suc...

Fri, July 12, 8:44 PM

Pleasant PPI Paradox Leaves This Week's Big Victory in Focus - Fri, July 12, 8:44 PM

MBS Recap Pleasant PPI Paradox Leaves This Week's Big Victory in Focus MBS Recap M...

Fri, July 12, 3:40 PM

Bonds Holding Yesterday's Gains Despite Hotter PPI - Fri, July 12, 3:40 PM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is certainly not in the same league as CPI when it comes to bond market impact, but there have been several notable reactions in the past year. It was a conce...

Fri, July 12, 12:37 PM

Surprisingly Resilient After MUCH Higher PPI - Fri, July 12, 12:37 PM

Core PPI M/M 0.4 vs 0.2 f'cast last month revised to 0.3 from 0.0 Core Annual PPI 3.0 vs 2.5 f'cast, 2.3 prev Thankfully, PPI is not in the same league as CPI.&n...

Thu, July 11, 8:42 PM

Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data's Implications - Thu, July 11, 8:42 PM

MBS Recap Very Restrained Bond Rally Considering The Data's Implications MBS Recap ...

Thu, July 11, 7:42 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Mid Day Highs - Thu, July 11, 7:42 PM

This is more of a heads-up than a true reprice alert although risks can't be ruled out completely. Bonds have drifted away from their best levels of the day after the 30yr bond auction and ...

Thu, July 11, 2:47 PM

This is The Inflation Data You Were Hoping For - Thu, July 11, 2:47 PM

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report for the bond market these days. The most important line item in that report is month over month core CPI, which excludes...

Thu, July 11, 12:34 PM

CPI Lower Than Expected. Bonds Rallying - Thu, July 11, 12:34 PM

Core CPI M/M 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core CPI Y/Y 3.3 vs 3.4 f'cast, 3.4 prev Pretty straightforward outcome here. CPI was high stakes and this is quite a...

Wed, July 10, 8:04 PM

No New Inspiration Ahead of Thursday's CPI - Wed, July 10, 8:04 PM

MBS Recap No New Inspiration Ahead of Thursday's CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Wed, July 10, 3:07 PM

Another Sideways Start Meets Another Light Calendar - Wed, July 10, 3:07 PM

The most recent sideways slide began just before noon last Friday. Bonds had rallied in response to the jobs report with 10's closing at 4.29%. Since then, there hasn't been more than...

Tue, July 9, 8:29 PM

MBS Outperform. Powell Punts. Waiting on CPI - Tue, July 9, 8:29 PM

MBS Recap MBS Outperform. Powell Punts. Waiting on CPI MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Tue, July 9, 3:31 PM

Bonds at Weakest Levels - Tue, July 9, 3:31 PM

After Powell said "Today, I’m not going to be sending any signals about the timing of future actions," the bond market moved to levels consistent with the absence any meaningful appreciatio...

Tue, July 9, 2:11 PM

Bonds a Bit Nervous After Powell's Prepared Remarks - Tue, July 9, 2:11 PM

Powell's testimony is about to begin, but as is the custom, a prepared speech is available in advance. Here are some of the bullet points highlighted by data aggregators: FED'S POWELL: F...

Tue, July 9, 1:54 PM

Powell Testimony And Treasury Auction Cycle - Tue, July 9, 1:54 PM

The new week is one day less new today, but no less sideways so far. Yields rose microscopically in the overnight session, but even that is a generous assessment considering the range in th...

Mon, July 8, 8:10 PM

Uneventful Monday Leaves Bonds Little Changed - Mon, July 8, 8:10 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Monday Leaves Bonds Little Changed MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Mon, July 8, 2:42 PM

Slow, Sideways Start After Overnight Weakness - Mon, July 8, 2:42 PM

Bonds are finding their range in a perfectly inoffensive way to begin the new week. That's a victory considering a bit of weakness is never a surprise at the start of Treasury auction weeks...

Fri, July 5, 8:33 PM

Orderly, Logical Rally as Bonds Reiterate Data Dependence - Fri, July 5, 8:33 PM

MBS Recap Orderly, Logical Rally as Bonds Reiterate Data Dependence MBS Recap Matt...

Fri, July 5, 3:24 PM

Stronger Start Thanks to Weaker Jobs Report - Fri, July 5, 3:24 PM

Today's playbook was fairly straightforward with bonds being likely to move in the direction suggested by the jobs report. The only challenge would have been the presence of mixed messages ...

Fri, July 5, 12:35 PM

First Move is Stronger After Mixed Payrolls Data - Fri, July 5, 12:35 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 206k vs 190k f'cast last month revised down to 218k from 272k Unemployment Rate 4.1 vs 4.0 f'cast, 4.0 prev Wages 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev ...

Wed, July 3, 6:18 PM

Data Over Politics, For Now - Wed, July 3, 6:18 PM

MBS Recap Data Over Politics, For Now MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2:17 PM ...

Sydney Andrews

Mortgage Professional

Loanenvy.com

M: (818) 359-0744

E: sydney@loanenvy.com

Loanenvy.com

www.loanenvy.com

License:

NMLS#47982

Ask Me a Question

Home | Weekly Newsletter | Mortgage Calculators | Library | Econ Calendar

Mortgage Calculators | Weekly Newsletter

These Marketing tools are provided by © MBS Live, LLC. All rights reserved. Learn more about these services.

Reproduction or redistribution of the contents of this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, either in whole or in part, is prohibited without prior written permission of the MBS Live, Inc.

The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.

© MBS Live, LLC. - All rights reserved.

Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.