Bonds have been meandering toward weaker levels in the past 2 hours. 10yr yields are up 3.6bps at 4.413. MBS are at new lows, down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and at least an eighth of a...
Friday's only scheduled economic report is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index. It is not considered a timely market mover and it had no impact this morning despi...
MBS are now down a quarter point in 6.0 coupons and 10 ticks (.31) in 5.5 coupons on the day. Both are easily down more than an eighth from any lender's rate sheet print times, thus making ...
The sharpest move of the morning was seen in the 8:30am to 9:00am time window, but there have been additional, choppy losses since then. 6.0 UMBS coupons are down an eighth and 5.5 coupons ...
It's the day after the CPI data and thus begins a concerted effort over the next few weeks to avoid compiling every piece of commentary as a simple countdown to the next CPI. To be fair, we...
First off: the bond market rallied after the CPI data came out and remains in much stronger territory vs yesterday. That said, the more context we add, the more underwhelming today becomes....
The Producer Price Index (PPI) isn't in the same league as CPI when it comes to market movement potential, but as seen again this morning, it's no slouch. Bonds responded immediately and so...
Core m/m PPI
0.5 vs 0.2 f'cast
last month revised to -0.1 from +0.2
Annual core PPI
2.4 vs 2.4 f'cast/prev
This is an odd report when it comes to reconciling the...
In 2023 and especially 2024, the first bullet point in the bond market's job description is to focus on Core CPI above all other economic reports. In fact, it's not uncommon for a big CPI r...
The following should be prefaced with the reminder that it is impossible to predict the future with much precision when it comes to bond market movement. That said, there are times when cer...
Bonds market losses have been gradual but have now carried UMBS 6.0 coupons to the lows of the day, down a quarter point in total. More importantly, prices are down just over an eighth of a...
It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis. Thursday's initial jobless claims data is the most notable we...
Jobless Claims
231k vs 210k f'cast, 209k prev
Bonds were modestly weaker overnight on a simple, gentle extension of yesterday's selling trend. There were no big, directiona...
For many lenders who priced after 9am initially, this is just a heads-up. MBS have not fallen enough from the average lender's rate sheet print time to create much negative reprice risk.&nb...
One of the notions surrounding the Treasury auction cycle is that the bond trading community tends to build in a "concession" ahead of any given auction. That's a fancy word to say "rates g...
This is more of a heads-up than a true alert for most lenders. MBS are still nicely stronger on the day, but off the best levels by just over an eighth in 5.5 coupons and just under an eigh...
The theme of "waiting" amid an empty calendar will be played out by the end of the week (if it's not already played out from most of the past year spent waiting for only a handful of key events e...
With multiple overseas market closures, volume and liquidity remain very light in the bond market. Most of the influence on today's trading came from a single block trade at 9:09am ET whi...
Last week was definitely important for the bond market. The key takeaway was the Fed's acknowledgement of elevated inflation in Q1 coupled with the assessment that they still see inflation ...
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. But in today's case, it's much low...
ISM Non Manufacturing
49.4 vs 52.0 f'cast, 51.4 prev
ISM Prices
59.2 vs 55.0 f'cast, 53.4 prev
Bonds had rallied well after the jobs report with 10yr yields as low ...
Nonfarm Payrolls
175k vs 243k f'cast, 315k prev
Unemployment Rate
3.9 vs 3.8 f'cast/prev
Wages
0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev
This is a fairly straightfo...
Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we can't see a bit of volatility for other reason...
Jobless Claims
208k vs 212k f'cast, 208k prev
Continued Claims
1774k vs 1800k f'cast, 1774k prev
Jobless Claims data isn't much of a market mover these days, but t...
Bonds have gradually corrected after the Powell press conference rally. 10yr yields are up to 4.636 from lows of 4.58, but that's still nearly a 5bp gain on the day. MBS are still up ...
Powell's press conference is in progress and things could conceivably shift at some point, but so far, it's been a good thing for bonds.
Reason being: markets were looking for a read on whethe...
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation h...
ISM Manufacturing
49.2 vs 50.0 f'cast, 50.3 prev
ISM Prices
60.9 vs 55.0 f'cast, 55.8 prev
Job Openings
8.488 vs 8.690m f'cast, 8.813m prev
Bonds had ...
Bonds were roughly unchanged overnight, but began to improve modestly after the ADP data. Considering the numbers were higher than expected, that may be more of a relief bid, or even "new m...
There's no big, new drama in the bond market this afternoon--just a slow bleed that takes us to the weakest levels of the day just now. 10yr yields are up 6.3 bps at 4.677 and MBS are down just o...
Steering clear of unfriendly economic data has been an increasingly challenging task for the bond market in April. While it might be an overstatement to say we're going out with a bang, tod...
Employment Cost Index
12 vs 1.0 f'cast, 0.9 prev
There was a time when we wouldn't have even put ECI on the econ calendar, but this morning's reaction brings it full circle as a ...