MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Two Ways to Look At This Morning's Sell-Off - Today, 2:24 PM

In the run up to the election, we offered constant reminders that a 10bp move in Treasuries wasn't really a big deal, and that such volatility could be expected well into November. That's t...

Fri, November 8, 11:14 PM

Back to Uneventful Already? - Fri, November 8, 11:14 PM

MBS Recap Back to Uneventful Already? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 6:14 PM ...

Fri, November 8, 8:05 PM

New Lows of The Day For MBS - Fri, November 8, 8:05 PM

MBS aren't much lower in price than they were at the time of the last alert, but a few additional lenders may be convinced to consider negative reprices this time around. 5.5 coupons are no...

Fri, November 8, 4:46 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Fri, November 8, 4:46 PM

MBS are still near unchanged levels on the day, but that's down more than an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Later-pricing lenders may have put out rate sheets near those highs. ...

Fri, November 8, 4:41 PM

Bonds Making a Stronger Case For Buying The News After Selling The Rumor - Fri, November 8, 4:41 PM

"Buy the rumor, sell the news" is an age-old aphorism in financial markets for a reason. It accurately speaks to the real and repeatable phenomenon whereby traders trade all the information...

Thu, November 7, 10:12 PM

Breaking Down The Big (Mostly) Non-Fed-Related Rally - Thu, November 7, 10:12 PM

MBS Recap Breaking Down The Big (Mostly) Non-Fed-Related Rally MBS Recap Matthew G...

Thu, November 7, 8:08 PM

Bonds Bounce Right Back After a Few Friendlier Comments - Thu, November 7, 8:08 PM

Bonds have bounced back to their strongest levels of the day shortly after the last alert. This began after he said they wouldn't rule out or in the previously anticipated pace of 2025 rate...

Thu, November 7, 7:44 PM

Bonds Losing a Bit More Ground Now - Thu, November 7, 7:44 PM

If there was a specific catalyst, it was Powell saying they've been watching the run up in rates and it's nowhere near where it was a year ago. This is true, but bonds don't love hearing it...

Thu, November 7, 7:04 PM

First Move is Modestly Weaker After Fed Announcement - Thu, November 7, 7:04 PM

Fed says labor market conditions have generally eased as opposed to saying "job gains have slowed" previously Fed drops the phrase about gaining greater confidence that inflation is moving tow...

Thu, November 7, 7:00 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Thu, November 7, 7:00 PM

What follows is a comparison between today's newly released Fed announcement and the previous announcement. Additions are blue/underlined. Subtractions are red/struck-through. Unchang...

Thu, November 7, 5:27 PM

Token Resilience After Data. Is The Fed Going to Mention The Election? - Thu, November 7, 5:27 PM

This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps 2024 right in line with recent years......

Thu, November 7, 2:25 PM

Bonds Improving After Jobless Claims Data - Thu, November 7, 2:25 PM

Jobless Claims 221k vs 221k f'cast, 218k prev Continued Claims 1892k vs 1880k f'cast, 1853k prev Bonds were remarkably calm overnight, given the volatility that's ...

Wed, November 6, 10:29 PM

Does The Fed Still Matter? - Wed, November 6, 10:29 PM

MBS Recap Does The Fed Still Matter? MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:03 PM ...

Wed, November 6, 2:45 PM

Huge Post-Election Sell-Off, The Calmest Result Imaginable - Wed, November 6, 2:45 PM

Heading into the election, we knew the bond market was losing ground in concert with improving odds of a Trump victory and red sweep. After being surprised in 2016, markets were determined ...

Tue, November 5, 9:54 PM

Bonds Brace For Election Results - Tue, November 5, 9:54 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Brace For Election Results MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:53 PM ...

Tue, November 5, 4:08 PM

Bonds Still Willing to React to Econ Data - Tue, November 5, 4:08 PM

Last week could easily have left us with the impression that the bond market's love affair with economic data was put on hold until after the election. One could even claim that Friday's jo...

Tue, November 5, 3:05 PM

Losing Ground After ISM Data - Tue, November 5, 3:05 PM

ISM Services 56.0 vs 53.8 f'cast, 54.9 prev employment 54.0 vs 48.0 Prices 58.1 vs 58.0 There are no two ways about it: a 56.0 reading in ISM Services is a strong result.&n...

Mon, November 4, 9:13 PM

Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility - Mon, November 4, 9:13 PM

MBS Recap Election Remains Dominant Source of Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Mon, November 4, 6:33 PM

New Lows For MBS - Mon, November 4, 6:33 PM

Bonds continue correcting after the big overnight rally. MBS were already just over an eighth of a point off the AM highs at the time of the last alert. They've since lost nearly anot...

Mon, November 4, 4:20 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From The Highs - Mon, November 4, 4:20 PM

After being up more than 3/8ths of a point on the day, MBS are now up only a quarter point and down 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs. Because those highs occurred around the same time m...

Mon, November 4, 3:08 PM

When is a Rally Not a Rally? (Explaining "Big" Overnight Move) - Mon, November 4, 3:08 PM

Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the shortest way to explain that we're no...

Fri, November 1, 9:07 PM

Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP - Fri, November 1, 9:07 PM

MBS Recap Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:06 P...

Fri, November 1, 3:51 PM

Negative Reprice Risk Increasing - Fri, November 1, 3:51 PM

MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and an entire half point from the AM highs. Many lenders are seeing at least a quarter point of weakness from morning rate sheet print times. ...

Fri, November 1, 2:22 PM

Down More Than a Quarter Point From Highs - Fri, November 1, 2:22 PM

After this morning's initial rally, bonds have been losing ground steadily. They're now at the weakest levels of the day with MBS roughly unchanged and down more than a quarter point from t...

Fri, November 1, 2:06 PM

Yes, NFP Really Dropped to 12k, But Don't Expect a Huge Rally - Fri, November 1, 2:06 PM

When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k previous reading, even after considering the...

Fri, November 1, 12:38 PM

Swing and a Miss For NonFarm Payrolls. Bonds Rallying - Fri, November 1, 12:38 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 12k vs 113k f'cast, 223k prev Unemployment Rate 4.1 vs 4.1 f'cast, 4.1 prev Clearly, the forecast consensus--which seemed way too low to everyone, ...

Thu, October 31, 8:52 PM

Will Jobs Report Finally Get Bond Market's Attention? - Thu, October 31, 8:52 PM

MBS Recap Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention? MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Thu, October 31, 4:16 PM

Once Again, Bonds Hangin' Tough Without Much Focus on Data - Thu, October 31, 4:16 PM

If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that much about economic data right now. Th...

Thu, October 31, 2:01 PM

MBS Down Nearly a Quarter Point From Highs - Thu, October 31, 2:01 PM

Granted, this morning's highs were only seen for a few brief moments. They also didn't coincide with any rate sheet print times. Nonetheless, current prices are now exactly a quarter ...

Thu, October 31, 12:38 PM

Mixed Reaction to Slightly Stronger Data - Thu, October 31, 12:38 PM

Jobless Claims 216k vs 230k f'cast, 228k prev Continued Claims 1862k vs 1890k f'cast Core PCE Prices M/M 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core PCE Y/Y 2....

Wed, October 30, 8:35 PM

Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data - Wed, October 30, 8:35 PM

MBS Recap Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:35...

Wed, October 30, 7:18 PM

New Lows For MBS - Wed, October 30, 7:18 PM

MBS prices lost ground fairly quickly after the 3pm CME close and 5.5 coupons are now down a quarter point on the day and just over 3/8ths from the AM highs. Negative reprices remain possib...

Wed, October 30, 3:26 PM

Deceptively Resilient After Stronger Data - Wed, October 30, 3:26 PM

It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slightly weaker (2.8 vs 3.0) but with hig...

Wed, October 30, 3:11 PM

MBS Down Over a Quarter Point From Highs - Wed, October 30, 3:11 PM

It's easy to lose sight of the current sell-off in this morning's shuffle. There's been a lot of back and forth. Unfortunately, the highs of the day coincide with lender rate sheet pr...

Wed, October 30, 12:40 PM

Some Additional Weakness After GDP Data - Wed, October 30, 12:40 PM

GDP Q3 2.8 vs 3.0 f'cast, 3.0 prev Core Q3 PCE price index 2.2 vs 2.1 f'cast, 2.8 prev All things considered, bonds are holding up fairly well. The 2.2 vs 2.1...

Wed, October 30, 12:20 PM

ADP Jobs Much Higher Than Expected. Bonds Selling, But Gently So Far - Wed, October 30, 12:20 PM

ADP Employment 233k vs 115k f'cast, 143k prev The prevailing sentiment heading into this week's payroll counts (ADP and NFP) was that the hurricane would make for artificially lo...

Tue, October 29, 8:40 PM

Nice Recovery After JOLTS Data and Treasury Auction - Tue, October 29, 8:40 PM

MBS Recap Nice Recovery After JOLTS Data and Treasury Auction MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Tue, October 29, 5:48 PM

MBS Move Into Positive Territory After 7yr Auction - Tue, October 29, 5:48 PM

7yr Treasury Auction 4.215 vs 4.235 f'cast bid to cover 2.74x vs 2.54x avg primer on auction jargon Bonds were near their weakest levels of the day with 10yr yields pushi...

Tue, October 29, 2:18 PM

Pushing Back Against Early Weakness After JOLTS Data - Tue, October 29, 2:18 PM

As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic data moving markets. That changed in a...

Mon, October 28, 9:16 PM

Bonds Doing What Bonds Do - Mon, October 28, 9:16 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Doing What Bonds Do MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5:13 PM ...

Mon, October 28, 4:03 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More LIkely - Mon, October 28, 4:03 PM

MBS have lost more than an eighth of a point since the last alert. They're now down a quarter point on the day and almost 3/8ths from the AM highs. This makes negative reprices increas...

Mon, October 28, 3:04 PM

MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, October 28, 3:04 PM

Bonds pushed into modestly positive territory to start the day, but have been giving up gains in the 10am hour. 5.5 UMBS are only down 2 ticks (.06) on the day, but that's 5 ticks (.16) bel...

Mon, October 28, 2:40 PM

Here Comes The Data (Starting Tomorrow) - Mon, October 28, 2:40 PM

After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From here on out, the move toward higher yiel...

Fri, October 25, 7:40 PM

Stronger Start, Weaker Finish - Fri, October 25, 7:40 PM

MBS Recap Stronger Start, Weaker Finish MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:40 PM ...

Fri, October 25, 7:20 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Increasingly Likely - Fri, October 25, 7:20 PM

MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10 ticks (.31) from AM highs. Lenders who have not yet repriced for the worse are increasingly likely to be considering it. 10yr yields are ...

Fri, October 25, 6:30 PM

Additional Negative Reprice Risk - Fri, October 25, 6:30 PM

Still no drama, just slow losses throughout the day. MBS are now down 3 ticks (0.09) in total and a quarter point from AM highs. Most lenders could justify a negative reprice if you h...

Fri, October 25, 4:33 PM

MBS At Lows - Fri, October 25, 4:33 PM

Nothing dramatic is happening by any means, but MBS have trickled down to new lows for the day. 5.5 coupons are still up 1 tick (.03) but down 5 ticks (.16) from the highs. Lenders wh...

Fri, October 25, 3:16 PM