MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Reasonably Strong Jobs Report. Reasonably Weak Reaction in Bonds - Fri, May 2, 2:29 PM

It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and the reaction is just as logical. Specificall...

Fri, May 2, 12:32 PM

First Move is Weaker After Higher Payrolls - Fri, May 2, 12:32 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 177k vs 130k f'cast, 185k prev last month revised down from 228 Unemployment Rate 4.2 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.2 prev Participation rate up 0.1%...

Thu, May 1, 8:19 PM

Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility - Thu, May 1, 8:19 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4...

Thu, May 1, 4:31 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Likely - Thu, May 1, 4:31 PM

MBS now down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and more than a quarter point from AM highs. Lenders who had rates available before 10am (or even shortly thereafter) are increasingly likely to repric...

Thu, May 1, 3:26 PM

ISM Manufacturing Data Surprises Bonds (Not in a Good Way) - Thu, May 1, 3:26 PM

2 weeks ago, we got our first hint that the market was once again ready to respond to economic data after a few weeks of tariff headlines being the only game in town. The hint came from the...

Thu, May 1, 2:08 PM

Losing Ground After ISM Data - Thu, May 1, 2:08 PM

ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.7 vs 48.0 f'cast ISM Prices Paid 69.8 vs 70.3 f'cast, 69.4 prev The S&P version of this data (out 2 weeks ago) suggested we should brac...

Thu, May 1, 12:33 PM

Extending Overnight Gains on Jobless Claims Data - Thu, May 1, 12:33 PM

Jobless Claims 241k vs 224k f'cast, 223k prev Continued Claims 1916k vs 1860k f'cast, 1833k prev Pretty simple one here. Bonds were a hair stronger overnight...

Wed, April 30, 8:50 PM

Action Packed Calendar But No Major Action in Bonds - Wed, April 30, 8:50 PM

MBS Recap Action Packed Calendar But No Major Action in Bonds MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Wed, April 30, 3:31 PM

Lots of Econ Data and Mixed Messages, But Not Much Change in Bonds - Wed, April 30, 3:31 PM

In terms of line items, Wednesday morning is the week's most active morning for economic reports. Several of them were potentially important, but the net effect has been muted so far. In fa...

Wed, April 30, 12:38 PM

Bonds Losing Ground Despite Weaker GDP Headline - Wed, April 30, 12:38 PM

Employment Cost Index 0.9 v 0.9 f'cast, 0.9 prev GDP -0.3 vs +0.3 f'cast, 2.4 prev Core PCE QoQ 3.5 vs 3.3 f'cast, 2.6 prev GDP Final Sales -2.5 vs...

Tue, April 29, 8:20 PM

Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck - Tue, April 29, 8:20 PM

MBS Recap Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:19...

Tue, April 29, 2:50 PM

Bonds Erase Overnight Weakness With Help From Tariff Talk and Data - Tue, April 29, 2:50 PM

Once again, bonds were modestly weaker overnight and once again, that weakness is being reversed in early trading. Whereas scapegoats were nowhere to be found yesterday morning, Tuesday has a few...

Mon, April 28, 8:12 PM

No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate - Mon, April 28, 8:12 PM

MBS Recap No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Mon, April 28, 3:39 PM

Bonds Starting New Week at Last Week's Best Levels - Mon, April 28, 3:39 PM

When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on Monday. When that logic is applied today, we&n...

Fri, April 25, 9:09 PM

Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day - Fri, April 25, 9:09 PM

MBS Recap Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 5...

Fri, April 25, 2:34 PM

Data Free Friday. Heavy Data Next Week - Fri, April 25, 2:34 PM

Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the final reading of the preliminary release 2 weeks...

Thu, April 24, 8:26 PM

Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons - Thu, April 24, 8:26 PM

MBS Recap Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:25 P...

Thu, April 24, 4:19 PM

Bigger Picture Starting to Look More Normal - Thu, April 24, 4:19 PM

What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look. Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways movement in a relatively narrow range as ...

Thu, April 24, 12:48 PM

Overnight Gains and Uneventful Data - Thu, April 24, 12:48 PM

Jobless Claims 222k vs 222k f'cast, 216k prev Continued Claims 1841k vs 1880k f'cast, 1878k prev Durable Goods 9.2 vs 2.0 f'cast, 0.9 prev Core Durable ...

Wed, April 23, 8:42 PM

Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data - Wed, April 23, 8:42 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data MBS Recap ...

Wed, April 23, 4:17 PM

Additional Negative Reprice Risk - Wed, April 23, 4:17 PM

This is an amplification of the previous alert as bonds continue to slide. MBS are still up a quarter point but down roughly 3/8ths from highs. Even the later pricing lenders are seei...

Wed, April 23, 2:34 PM

MBS Still up Big But Well Off Highs (Hit by PMI Price Data) - Wed, April 23, 2:34 PM

Bonds and stocks are both sharply stronger today thanks to overnight headlines regarding Fed Chair Powell and fresh headlines on lower tariffs. Bonds are having more of a mixed reaction to ...

Wed, April 23, 2:17 PM

What's Up With Today's Big Bond Rally?! - Wed, April 23, 2:17 PM

Two factors had been contributing more than others to drive bond yields higher as of yesterday. The broader, ongoing factor is/was the tariff/trade stand-off with China. Whether approached ...

Tue, April 22, 8:37 PM

Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility - Tue, April 22, 8:37 PM

MBS Recap Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | ...

Tue, April 22, 3:07 PM

Here We Are Again: No News is Good News - Tue, April 22, 3:07 PM

If there was an overriding theme last week, it was that the absence of new tariff drama helped the bond market recover some of the previous week's weakness. While it wasn't exactly tariff drama, ...

Mon, April 21, 9:28 PM

Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons - Mon, April 21, 9:28 PM

MBS Recap Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons MBS Recap Matthew Gr...

Mon, April 21, 5:44 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely - Mon, April 21, 5:44 PM

Bonds continue selling steadily and gradually with no major spikes or reactions to headlines/data. 10yr yields are up 7.7bps at 4.403, right in line with the highs of the day. MBS are do...

Mon, April 21, 4:35 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Mon, April 21, 4:35 PM

Bonds had recovered from overnight weakness fairly well heading into the 10am hour with both MBS and Treasuries nearly hitting unchanged levels. Selling picked back up at 10:30am and UMBS 5.5 cou...

Mon, April 21, 2:38 PM

Drama Returns, But With Mixed Results For Bonds - Mon, April 21, 2:38 PM

Heading into last week, we expected to be waiting until after the holiday weekend to get a better sense of the prevailing tone in financial markets. If the week of April 7-11 represent tariff-dri...

Thu, April 17, 8:55 PM

Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness - Thu, April 17, 8:55 PM

MBS Recap Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:47 PM ...

Thu, April 17, 4:32 PM

Weakest Levels Of The Day - Thu, April 17, 4:32 PM

This is more of a heads-up than an actual alert. MBS are now down to the weakest levels of the day with 5.5 coupons down exactly an eighth of a point (both on the day and versus many ...

Thu, April 17, 2:45 PM

Slow Start, Narrowest Range, Early Close - Thu, April 17, 2:45 PM

The market and market participants could use a break after everything endured over the past 2 weeks. This holiday-shortened week turned out to provide a timely opportunity. Economic data ha...

Wed, April 16, 7:48 PM

Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks - Wed, April 16, 7:48 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks MBS Recap ...

Wed, April 16, 3:35 PM

The Big Calm-Down Continues. Powell on Deck - Wed, April 16, 3:35 PM

What a difference a week makes. The present example has been entirely different than the previous example in terms of volatility and directional movement. To reiterate our overarching thesis, Apr...

Wed, April 16, 2:46 PM

Down an Eighth From Highs - Wed, April 16, 2:46 PM

Bonds have just barely been favoring a selling trend in what has otherwise been a mostly flat morning. MBS liquidity has been poor, potentially contributing to a bit more weakness than we other...

Wed, April 16, 12:40 PM

Unchanged Overnight. Minimal Reaction to Retail Sales So Far - Wed, April 16, 12:40 PM

Retail Sales 1.4 vs 1.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Retail Sales Control Group 0.4 vs 0.6 f'cast, 1.3 prev Once again, bonds where sideways in the overnight session, de...

Tue, April 15, 8:39 PM

Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger - Tue, April 15, 8:39 PM

MBS Recap Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:38 PM...

Tue, April 15, 7:56 PM

MBS Down Just Over an Eighth From Mid-Day Highs - Tue, April 15, 7:56 PM

This alert only really applies to lenders who issued positive reprices earlier today. Any other lender is only seeing a modest drop in prices from rate sheet print times--if any. 5.5 UMB...

Tue, April 15, 3:24 PM

Now For Something Completely Different: Stronger Start, Lower Volatility - Tue, April 15, 3:24 PM

In the context of the past two weeks, the past two days have been an anomaly. Not only have bond yields been moving lower, but they've done so in relatively lower volatility and without the same ...

Mon, April 14, 8:18 PM

Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change - Mon, April 14, 8:18 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change MBS Recap Mat...

Mon, April 14, 2:10 PM

Cautious Optimism on Electronic Tariff Exclusions - Mon, April 14, 2:10 PM

Friday afternoon's memorandum on tariff exclusions set the stage for stronger trading in stocks and bonds in the overnight session. Bonds rallied steadily in Asia/Europe and have continued to imp...

Fri, April 11, 9:03 PM

Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data - Fri, April 11, 9:03 PM

MBS Recap Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data MBS Recap Matthew Graha...

Fri, April 11, 4:38 PM

Big (Bad) Things Are Happening in Bonds - Fri, April 11, 4:38 PM

There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began before 1981 (and unless something changes dra...

Fri, April 11, 1:16 PM

MBS Already Down a Quarter Point - Fri, April 11, 1:16 PM

The paradoxical post-PPI trade continues and MBS are now down just over a quarter point on the day. 10yr yields are up 5.8bps at 4.49. While this doesn't have reprice implications for to...

Fri, April 11, 12:38 PM

Huge Drop in PPI; Don't Expect Fireworks - Fri, April 11, 12:38 PM

Core MM PPI -0.1 vs +0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core YY PPI 3.3 vs 3.6 f'cast, 3.4 prev Headline MM PPI -0.4 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.1 prev Much like yesterday's ...

Thu, April 10, 9:08 PM

The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real - Thu, April 10, 9:08 PM

MBS Recap The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real MBS Recap Matthew G...

Thu, April 10, 7:24 PM

Negative Reprices Becoming Increasingly Likely - Thu, April 10, 7:24 PM

MBS are now down 14 ticks (.44) on the day and from many lenders' rate sheet print times. If you haven't seen a negative reprice yet, the odds are getting very high. 10yr yields ar...

Thu, April 10, 3:49 PM